(CNN)The Russian army has arguably the best spells since the Ukrainian invasion began four months ago.
They eliminated most Ukrainian defenses in the Luhansk region, integrated management of southern territorial zones, improved logistics and command, and blunted the effectiveness of Ukrainian offensive drones. ..
Last week, Russians were rewarded for Ukrainian troops attacking the rest of the Luhansk region, abandoning Severodonetsk and losing territory. South of Lysychansik.
Self-declared head of the People's Republic of Luhansk, Leonid Paseknik, predicted last Friday that Russian troops would completely surround Lysychansik within a few days. So far they haven't, but the city is at stake.
Russian troops have also stepped up their attacks in the Donetsk region, slightly closer to the zone of the industrial city of the region, which runs south from Slovyansk through Kramatorsk to Kostantinovka.
The immediate dilemma of the Ukrainian army is whether to continue to commit to defending Lysychans'k, at the risk of losing troops and weapons when the city is surrounded, and Ukrainian political leadership. Whether to order a withdrawal to a new line of defense.
If so, units in Ukrainian territorial pockets can be withdrawn without being decimated. Most of the highway from Lysychans'k to Bakmut is littered with debris, and Russian troops are approaching Bakmut itself.
Despite numerous attempts to break through the Ukrainian line, the Russians now seem to have made little progress from Izyum in the north to Slovyansk. Still, Ukrainian officials warned on Sunday that Russian troops were "accumulating" north of Slovyansk. Russian troops can quickly mobilize a small group of battalion tactics sitting across national borders.
Some Russian bloggers are not obsessed with optimism. Yuri Kotienok, for example, believes that the Russian army does not have enough personnel to surround the highly fortified cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
In the long run, the Ukrainians' greatest hope is to gradually run out of firepower as they deploy Russian cannons, rocket systems, and western weapons that can destroy the command post far behind the front line. Is to be able to reduce to.
However, weapons such as the HIMARS rocket system, which has a range of 70 km (43 miles) in the configuration supplied to Ukraine, require several weeks of training. And in Donbus, weeks are a long time given the current pressure on Ukrainian troops.
The pressure is even greater as many of the units deployed in this area are one of Ukraine's most experienced units. They are worn out by the intensity of the Russian bombing and cannot be easily replaced.
And the Ukrainian army has already lost the battle, and some weapons have been rushed forward. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed last week that a Russian strike had already eliminated some of the US-supplied M777 howitzers.
The Russian offensive also learned from the mistakes made during the first and halfway drive to Kieu. Air defense, primarily the S-300, is deployed to cover a large area rather than a local cover, reducing the effectiveness of Ukrainian attack drones. By the way, recent videos posted on social media seem to have few indications that Ukrainian fighters are in motion.
Russia appoints new commander
Russia's hierarchy has also been reorganized, and new commanders of the South and Central Armies have been appointed by Deputy Minister of Defense Jennadi. Dedicated to Ukraine under overall leadership. Zhidko.
The Institute for the Study of War said, "Russia's Supreme Command is reorganizing and restructuring its military command to better organize operations in Ukraine."
Since the first reported visit of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his senior commander to the troops involved in the "special military operation" seemed to be in favor of Russia. Probably not a coincidence. Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.
Rob Lee, a Russian military analyst at King's College London, said he was sitting next to Shoigu at a meeting he was visiting. Prime Minister Lee recalled that Russia clearly "violated the unified principles of HQ because there was no general commander in the early stages (March)."
It is unclear whether Russia's success in strengthening Ukraine's defenses in Donetsk will facilitate further expansion of its war objectives beyond special military operations. Perhaps an effort to maintain momentum up to the Dniepuru River. This essentially divides Ukraine into two.
This is the worst scenario for Ukrainians, and so far it is not an imminent risk, but a distant possibility remains. The Ukrainian army still protects about 12,000 square kilometers (4,600 square miles) (Connecticut-sized area) in Donetsk alone.
Despite the reversal of Ukraine in recent weeks, Russian armor also suffers from high turnover. Western officials believe that some battalion tactical groups have been reconstructed.
And there may be a silver lining for Ukraine in that battlefield reversal: they just claim an accelerated weapon pipeline from the west to meet the G7 leaders. ..
Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson, one of President Zelensky's most devoted supporters, is at risk of "Ukrainian malaise" as the battlefield appears to be in Russia's favor. recognizing.
"The first weeks and months of Ukrainian resistance are characterized by overwhelming global unity and a surge in massive support for the Ukrainian people," he said of the G7 in Germany. I said when it started.
"It is imperative that this last for a long time. Putin's actions and atrocities in Russia must not be normalized in the eyes of the world."
-For now-There are no signs of blinking on either side. Especially because many things are at stake.
Hal Brands told the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that "to highlight and deepen today's fundamental global divisions: advanced democracy committed to the existing international order and Eurasia's attempt to overthrow. It's a conflict with dictatorship. " that. "
But for Putin, this chosen war is an installment payment of an existential struggle for US hegemony.
The War Institute said Kremlin was" in Ukraine. " It is intended to carry out protracted conflicts and seeks to promote mobilization efforts to support long-term military and political goals in the occupied territories of the United States. "
