Analysts on why it's a mistake to assume the worst inflation has happened

Whether on TV or in a grocery store,record high inflation signs are avoided not. Food prices are up 10% compared to last year, new cars are up 12.5% ​​and gasoline are up almost 50%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Jacob Goldstein, host and analyst of the "What's Your Problem" podcast, told CBS News that the two biggest categories of price spikes are food and fuel. 

"That's extraordinary," he said. "It went up so fast, and you know that one thing about gas is that you only see it, there are big big signs, as it literally is on your face, and you It's very painful to see the numbers go up. "

GoldsteinWar between Russia and Ukraine { We believe that 22}  is the main cause of rising gas prices. 

"Russia has invaded Ukraine. That is the majority because Russia is a huge supplier of oil and people do not buy so much oil from Russia." Said Goldstein. 

In addition, there is another supply problem that the refining capacity lost during the pandemic has not been fully restored. 

It's not just fuel. Supply chains in many industries are struggling to recover after a pandemic. At Morton Williams Supermarket in New York, manager Douglas McKinley said he had never had a hard time placing an order. 

"There is a problem with almost every vendor," he said. 

The store has been free of powdered milk for months and the price of eggs has almost doubled in just one year. 

Goldstein said that while food and gas are in demand, so are workers. Currently, there are two jobs for all Americans looking for a job.

"Unemployment is now at this historic low level, and strangely, that's a big part of why inflation is so high," he said. 

Goldstein is lowUnemployment ratesaid it can be a problem for both individuals and the economy. .. 

Goldstein believes that another issue is the stimulating checks issued by the government in 2020 and 2021. He said they "overheated" the economy. 

At the time, one of the few who warned that stimulus would pose an inflation risk was former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. 

Summers, who was talking to President Biden, said that every time the unemployment rate was so low and the inflation rate was so high, the result was recession. He believes the unemployment rate needs to stay at 6% for five years and interest rates need to be raised to curb inflation.

"It's not too late to control the situation, but to do that, you have to accept the actual pain and dislocation," Summers said. "We're raising it, but I think we're probably the way to go. I think we have to raise interest rates considerably." 

Goldstein said inflation. Expects to cool soon, but said the country has not yet seen the end of the highs. 

"I think inflation is more likely to fall in the coming months than it rises, but I'm not sure if it will fall forever," Goldstein said. "I think it's a mistake to think that we've seen the worst inflation."