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Analysis of potential Giants results in Saquon Barkley's contract dilemma

Once, the Giants gave the injured game breaker a new maximum contract after choosing not to refrain from the fifth training camp. Season. 

Tricky Oderbeckham Jr. negotiations from 2018 compare to the future of Giants and Sakuon Berkeley, where the ideal marriage was once upside down by injuries in the past. Looks like a child's play Two years after it became impossible to distinguish between the best and worst scenarios on either side. 

Berkeley fulfilled his wishes this offseason when the Giants had never seriously considered exchanging him for the coveted salary cap relief. However, there was no public pressure to extend him as the highest paid player in his position, as when Beckham Jr. entered the year of walking. Sure, there's no idea of ​​holdout. 

As with the delusion four years ago, understand the difference between back and receiver execution and until you realize that the Giants are not at the forefront of deep playoff execution. So what's the future of Berkeley and the Giants? The possibilities are: 

Berkeley works fine and is resigned 

Saquon Barkley
Getty Images

It's not that crazy for Berkeley to return to 2,028 yards in 2018 and 15 touchdowns from Scrimmage. 

One idea is that some players will not return to full strength until the second season after a major knee injury like Berkeley suffered in September 2020. Another factor is that Berkeley has finally launched an attack. He can use his diverse rush and receive skills instead of misfitting him like the 1990s style I-form powerback. 

If this happens, the Giants need to decide if they want to be the latest team to reset the running back market. There will be screams from both sides of the fence. Rams (Todd Girly), and so far, Cowboys (Ezekiel Elliott) and Panthers (Christian McCafree), and critics who point out the low return on investment of their supporters. Those who see Berkeley as both an elite playmaker and a marketable star in the franchise that John Mara, a co-owner of values, cherishes. 

Analysis shows that running back collapses around the age of 30, but Berkeley is still 25 at the end of the 2022 season. 

Berkeley played well and was not resigned 

Saquon Barkley speaks to the media at Giants minicamp.
Charles Wenzelberg / New York Post

How much impact does a great running back affect your victory? Of the 12 teams that paid the highest salaries for running backs in 2021, only 3 played off. According to CBS Sports, the average salary of the major rushers of the winning Super Bowl team since 2009 is only $ 1.09 million. The 

franchise tag ($ 13 million) may be an option, but Giants may need its security blanket to protect quarterback Daniel Jones from free agencies. Then ask Berkeley to bypass long-term security to play with the fifth-year option, and then continuously tag it with franchise tags to remove the type of bad blood that has been cleverly avoided. May produce. 

There are three drawbacks to leaving Berkeley as a free agent. Criticism of getting nothing in exchange for one of the few assets on the roster, quarterback Josh Allen and aggressive lineman Quenton Nelson drafting Berkeley, and his potential to be inducted elsewhere Fear of doing. 

True pessimists may say that the Giants led Berkeley's success to victory and worsened the 2023 draft position without long-term gains. 

Berkeley plays well, but the Giants don't start 

Saquon Barkley participates in drills at Giants minicamp.
Charles Wensel Berg / New York Post

Berkeley is sensational and Giants given Daniel Jones' contradictions, unmanned secondary, and reliance on inexperience on both sides of the line. May still start 5th 2-6 or 1-7 straight season. Giants are 5-7 when rushing 100 yards and 2-5 when having a career of 70 yards or more. 

In this scenario, Giants' idea of ​​holding Berkeley in March is that his value is higher before the closing date on November 1st than in the off-season. It will be clear if it was there. By then, the Giants need to know how much Berkeley's asking price will be at a free agency. 

Paying a lot for running back does not mean that Giants general manager Joe Shane has been exposed to the role of Bills' top deputy. Rams exchanged round 4 and round 6 picks for the 2021 season and rented Sony Michelle in front of a free agency. Michelle's cap is far from Berkeley's cap. 

Berkeley's play is bad or unhealthy 

Berkeley struggles, but it's almost impossible to predict a scenario where the Giants will win frequently. He is still so important. 

Significantly to the total of 22 games he missed if he wasn't better than last season (when he rushed a low career of 3.7 yards per carry) or due to injuries in the last three seasons Add to. Then the writing is on the wall to go different paths. 

However, the Giants could have wasted $ 7.2 million on a cap space that could have been dumped in March and used to rescue James Bradbury in the corner back. I have. They have only a terrifying five-year record showing that they were ranked second in the 2018 draft.