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Bonnies can form this week as the hurricane season heats up in the Atlantic Ocean

Posted byJennifer Gray, CNN Meteorologist

Originally the version of this article A weekly weather newsletter, CNN Weather Brief, published every Monday. You can register hereand receiveweekly and during a storm.

(CNN)The Atlantic hurricane season is just around the corner, and the tropics are finally starting to flourish. Suddenly, there were three areas to keep an eye on. It's worth noting that many of you are planning Independence Day.

Start with the one that has the best shots for the next tropical cyclone. It's still far from the ocean, but at this point it looks like a tropical cyclone.

"Increased shower and thunderstorm activity associated with tropical waves located about 950 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands," the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said this morningAs stated in the outlook for tropical cyclones24} "Environmental conditions seem to encourage further development, and tropical cyclones may form in the coming days."

The system will not reach the Windward Islands until Tuesday night, after which it will head to the southern Caribbean Sea. Currently, NHC has a 70% chance that this system will develop into the next tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and a 90% chance that it will develop within the next 5 days.

The conditions are suitable for this storm to occur. Wind shear (winds that change direction and speed as they move up the atmosphere, usually tearing tropical systems) is low in the region, providing an environment for stormy prosperity. This storm can be even stronger.

If this system becomes a system with the following name, it will be namedBonnieTo be designated as Bonnie, the storm will have a wind of at least 39 mph. Must be persistent. If a hurricane hunter finds a wind below 39 mph, it can be a tropical cyclone first, but tropical cyclones are numbered. It will not be named until at least the strength of a tropical cyclone.

Looking at the forecast model of this potential system, the path it follows is incredibly south and can affect Venezuela and the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao). .. If you plan to travel there right away, keep an eye on this.

No named storm has hit Aruba directly since 1950. However, 13 storms occurred within 60 nautical miles of the island, and according to NHC, developing a system far south of this

is quite common in early storms. .. After all, there is some of the warmest water out there.

"It is quite common to get the system off the coast at 8-10 degrees north latitude, as the latitude of the eastern waves from the African coast tends to move north in the next few months. It's the time of the year. " Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric science research scientist at Colorado State University, said.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate this system later on Monday so we can learn more about the storm by tonight.

"Regardless of development, local heavy rainfall can occur on the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela on Tuesday nights and Wednesdays," NHC said.

Most models keep this storm in a very south orbit throughout its life and could land in Nicaragua by the weekend. Obviously, that could change, but in any case, this doesn't affect the United States.

The other two systems are very unlikely to be tropical, but are likely to affect the coasts of the United States, so it is worth mentioning.

The first is off the coast of South Louisiana. Swarms of storms stay on the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and meander southwest over the next few days.

"Development of this system will occur slowly west-southwest at 10 miles per hour towards the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, approaching the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico in the next few days. "The NHC said.

Interestingly, the water in the Gulf of Mexico is already very warm. Some buoys have already read 92 degrees in some places. This is about 5 degrees higher than usual during this time, but we know that the Gulf of Mexico is warm enough to support a nasty storm each year-because the storm thrives. Needs more than warm water.

"Other factors are more important for the Gulf Hurricane," Klotzbach said. "There are wind shear, moderate humidity, and existing obstacles that occur when reaching the bay (or entering the bay from elsewhere). Of course, all these conditions already exist and the water is warmer than usual. If so, it can certainly exacerbate the problem. ”

Fortunately, these factors should not lead to this week's Gulf development. NHC has set the potential for tropical development to 10% in the next 48 hours and 20% within the next 5 days.

However, in some parts of the Texas and Mexican coasts, shower activity may increase this week. This weak system is drifting.

The last mentioned system is located hundreds of miles southwest of the Cape Verde archipelago, causing showers and storms.

"Environmental conditions could facilitate phased development later this week, while the system travels west-northwest at 15 mph over the Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean," NHC said.

This system is only 20% likely to be developed in the next 5 days, but some models put it in a more northward orbit, so it's worth noting as the week progresses. there is. This means that it could bring cloudiness and rain to the Leeward Islands and possibly the Bahamas by the weekend of July 4th.

Quiet June doesn't mean a quiet season

It feels a bit like someone turned on the lights during the hurricane season. We're not suddenly crazy, but because of the fact that there's something to be noted at last.

In the last seven hurricane seasons, there was at least one named storm before the start of the season (June 1st), but this did not happen.

It's been almost a month since there's only onenamed Atlantic Storm-Alex-looks a bit quieter than at least the last few years. increase. By this time in 2021 and 2020, we were already on or past the storm of the fourth name.

But according to Klotzbach, it doesn't make much sense in terms of how busy the season will be.

"There is little correlation between hurricane activity prior to August 1st and what happens during the rest of the season," says Klotzbach.

Climatologically, the Atlantic hurricane season actually begins to increase in August before it peaks in September.

"The start of the season was certainly quiet and very busy," Klotzbach said. "For example, the first named storm of 2004 did not occur inuntil August."
Interestingly, in the 2004 season, we used this year. A list with the same name was used. However, you will notice that the six names are different when compared to the 2004 list. This is because some names have been abolished due to the destructive nature of the associated storm. In 2004, four major storms ofhad a direct impact on Floridain just six weeks. Charlie, Francis, Ivan and Jeanne.
"Also, until August 15th, theseason in 2017 was slightly less than usual, but it was clearly very active," Klotzbach added.
Especially in 2017, there wasHarvey, which brought catastrophic rain to Texas in late August of that year.IrmaandMariacontinued only a few weeks later. If you haven't yetprepared for the
season, you need to prepare now. The season is clearly increasing and you don't want to be surprised.