Florida looks good, but the Gators are overvalued after their win over Tennessee, a team I’m very low on compared to the market.
Meanwhile, their loss to Utah looks worse by the day, given how bad the Utes offense looks.
Kentucky has yet to play anyone, but I love this team.
The Wildcats are in line for their first signature victory of 2023. Mark Stoops is a killer defensive-minded head coach.
Meanwhile, the offense has the pieces to be successful.
Devin Leary is an upgrade at quarterback over Will Levis, the unit is uber-experienced, and the line is getting a boost this week with the return of guard Kenneth Horsey from injury.
The Wildcats should leverage their elite run defense and stack the box, forcing the mistake-prone Graham Mertz to beat Kentucky in a hostile environment.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats should thrive on explosive plays (first nationally in Explosiveness) against a Florida defense that allows plenty of deep shots (133rd in Explosiveness allowed).
The pick: Kentucky -1.
Troy (+1.5) over GEORGIA STATE
It’s time to sell high on 4-0 Georgia State, which is off a huge win against Sun Belt powerhouse Coastal Carolina. The Panthers’ record isn’t that impressive.
Their four wins have come against teams with a combined one FBS win.
I also hate this matchup for Georgia State.
The Panthers are a rush-heavy offense that relies on dual-action quarterback Darren Grainger, and they’re running into a dominant Troy rush defense.
Troy is also undervalued.
The Trojans only beat Western Kentucky by three last week, but they outgained the ‘Toppers by almost 250 yards.
It’s an excellent time to buy a Troy team playing well in a solid schematic matchup.
Iowa State (+20) over OKLAHOMA
The Sooners are crazy overvalued. They beat Cincinnati by 14 last week, but the Bearcats finished with six points on six drives past the 40-yard line.
The ’Cats scored three points on their final four red-zone drives and went 1-for-4 on fourth down.
I’m betting Oklahoma won’t be that lucky again.
Oklahoma’s other wins are also unimpressive.
The Sooners pulled out a miracle cover against SMU, winning by 17 as 16.5-point favorites despite trailing in the fourth quarter and being outgained 367 to 365.
Their other two wins came against doormats in Arkansas State and Tulsa.
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Meanwhile, it’s a decent time to buy Iowa State, as the Cyclones are settling down after off-the-field issues hindered them in the non-con.
New quarterback Rocco Becht looked great last week in a win against Oklahoma State, going 27-for-38 passing for 350 yards and three touchdowns.
The Cyclones are on the up-and-up and should cover an inflated number against a fraudulent Sooners team.
Plus, Matt Campbell always covers big numbers. He’s 12-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog.
Last week: 2-0-1. Cincinnati (P), Oregon (W), James Madison (W)
2023 season: 8-3-1