Bad elections mean thatloses a majority of Democratsin the US House of Representatives. This is virtually certain to the strategists of his own party. The Republican-controlled House of Representativesinterfered with his legislative agenda, investigated his administration and his family, and perhaps even impeached them, for no good reason.
In the worst case, it also means losing the Senate. Returning to the work of majority leader,Mitch McConnellcould deny Biden's ability to fill the highest administrative duties and judicial vacancies, including potential vacancies in the Supreme Court. there is.
Both results are shaped by the same atmospheric conditions. It has been a strong supporter of the Republican Party for months. Fortunately for the embarrassed Biden, however, important House and Senate contests sometimes work differently.
Voters don't know much about individual house members and their challengers. As a result, competitive house racing is largely at the mercy of the national mood, which suffers from inflationary concerns and disappointment with Biden.
The Gerrymandering in the House district has left some truly competitive, but its target pool has speaker Gavel in the hands of the Republicans. Seems to be big enough to pass. Republicans need only four seats of net profit (a small part of the average historical profit of a party without a White House) to recapture the majority.
In the Senate, which is currently divided into 50-50, Republicans only need a net profit of one seat. But that is not easy to achieve.
More than the House of Representatives, the more well-known Senators and their challengers have the ability to create their own political weather. In competitive races, they constantly hone their image and have a lot of cash for campaign ads that tar the enemy.
Higher profiles can increase the assets of strong candidates and the liabilities of weak candidates. Republicans were most worried about the latter, watching incompetent candidates blow off some winning Senate races when the party was in the minority in 2010 and 2012. The result depends mainly on which seat they are in. In 2018, even if the unpopularity of then-PresidentDonald Trumphelped the Democratic Party reoccupy, the campaign would definitely be on the battlefield in red states such as Missouri, North Dakota, and Indiana. The Republican Party won two Senate seats because the race was included.
In 2022, political geography was clearly blue. Democrats can maintain the Senate simply by re-election of incumbents in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Biden won in two more states.
For the embarrassed majority party, "I've never seen such a good map," said Amy Walter, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
On that auspicious battlefield, Democrats recently obtained fresh ammunition.
At Capitol Hill,The House of Commons Election Commission investigating January 6, 2021 details the length Trump and his allies attempted to overthrow Americans. I explained to. Verdicts of people in the 2020 elections. And in the Supreme Court, a new ruling shows that Republican-appointed conservative judges are willing to disobey the majority opinion and precedent on the most volatile issues that are making the country upset.
First, the courtexpands the constitutional right to possess weapons by revoking the New York law of a century ago, which limits the rights of residents to carry hidden weapons. I did. Later, a majority of 5-4eliminated the constitutional rights of abortionthat women had over the last half century as a result of the Roe v. Wade decision.
In summary, these developments highlightBiden's warningabout the radicalism and radicalism of Trump's "Make America Great Again" movement. Democracy candidates are anxious for the opportunity to shift the attention of voters from the economic concerns that weigh on the White House to more fundamental questions about American democracy.
"Is Biden's disappointment more powerful than fear of MAGA?" Asked Simon Rosenberg, president of the think tank New Democracy Network. "I don't know if that's the case."
These Democratic attacks are putting particular pressure on untested Republican candidates who appear to match the Democratic portrait. In Georgia, the main target of the Senate Republican Party,former soccer star Herschel Walkerupholds a complete ban on abortion, banning rape, incest, and even the exception of women's life-threatening threats. I am. Walker also suffers from personal controversy and strange public statements in his bid to expelDemocratic Senator Raphael Warnock
. Democratic voters. However, they argue that the insecurity of MAGA governance will eventually be overwhelmed byeconomic dissatisfaction and the general direction of the country
"it is. It won't have much traction, "said pollster Neil Newhouse, a veteran Republican.
A few party dissidents remain uncertain. California-based Republican consultant Mike Madrid, who worked to defeat Trump in 2020, sees results that change the relative magnitude of two conflicting trends: whites in the suburbs to the Democratic Party. Blue-collar Hispanic men drift to women and Republicans.
By working with the Democrats on gun safety law, McConnell told reporters last week that he wanted to fully reverse these suburban asylum. But "it's ridiculous to believe that's a natural conclusion," Madrid said.