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Energy prices are causing turmoil in Asia. This is why other parts of the world are worried

(CNN Business)In Sri Lanka, people wait miles to fill a fuel tank Put in the queue. In Bangladesh, the store closes at 8 pm. Save energy. In India and Pakistan, power outages close schools, businesses are closed, and residents get hot and humid without air conditioning due to deadly heat waves with temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37 degrees Celsius).

These are just a few of the more eye-catching scenes unfolding in the Asia-Pacific region, where different countries are facing the worst energy crises in years. Knock-on increases living expenses.

In Sri Lanka and Pakistan, the sense of crisis is clear. Public anger has already resigned the ministerial wave in Colombo and contributed to the downfall of Imran Khan as Prime Minister in Islamabad.

Still, many suspect that political calculations have just begun. Both countries have been forced to take desperate steps to reach out to the International Monetary Fund and introduce shorter working weeks to save energy. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the Sri Lankan economy was"completely collapsed."

Elsewhere in the area, the signs of the problem may not be so obvious, but they can still have widespread consequences. Even in relatively wealthy countries like Australia, economic concerns are beginning to emerge as consumers feel a pinch of higher energy prices.

In the first quarter of 2022, wholesale electricity prices wereup 141% from last year.Households are being asked to reduce their usage, and on June 15, the Australian Government suspended the country's electricity market indefinitely to lower prices and relieve pressure Prevent energy supply chains and power outages.

However, India's experience of recent record highs in electricity demand gives the clearest reason why this is a global crisis rather than a regional one.

The world's third-largest carbon emitter, suffering from widespread outages in record temperatures, said on May 28 that state-owned Coal India would import coal for the first time since 2015. Announced.

{36 What is the cause of the problem?

Each of these countries faces its own situation, but all havecoronavirus pandemicsandRussian war in UkraineI have been hit by two influences. — Two unforeseen events that previously plagued rational assumptions about supply lines and regional security, and in the process disrupted the world of economic planning.

Fundamentally, experts say the problem lies in the growing mismatch between supply and demand.

Over the past few years, pandemics have kept energy demand unusually low, global electricity consumption has fallen by more than3% in the first quarter of 2020Did. Due to blockages and other restrictions, workers stayed home, cars were off the road, and ships were stuck in the harbor.

But now that countries are starting to boost the pandemic, fuel demand is skyrocketing. Due to sudden competition, coal, oil and gas prices have reached record highs.

This trend is exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine,the world's third largest oil producer and the second largest crude oil exporterwith the United States. Gas sanctioning Russia's oil, many of its allies, many continue to struggle to find alternative sources — further intensifying competition for limited supplies.

"Energy demand recovered very quickly from the coronavirus and faster than supply," said Samantha Gross, director of the Brookings Institution's Energy Security and Climate Initiative. increase.

"Therefore, there were highs (but at that time) before Russia invaded Ukraine, but the energy supply was really shocking. Various actions taken in response. Is a real challenge to the world's energy supply. "

Why Asia?

Energy import prices have risen dramatically around the world, but international coal prices are five times higher than they were a year ago, and natural gas prices are the highest last year. It has increased 10 times. Experts say there is a reason why some Asian economies, especially imports, have been hit hardest by developing economies.

"If you have to buy these goods, buy oil, buy natural gas in a country, especially in emerging economies like Sri Lanka, this is a real struggle." Said Mark Zandy. , Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics.

"You are paying more for what you need, but what you are selling is not rising, so you are paying more to try to buy the same. Keep the economy moving. ”

Poor countries that are still developing or industrialized are only less capable of competing with their deeper pocket rivals. At the Global Energy Policy Center at Columbia University.

"So Pakistan certainly fits there. I think Sri Lanka fits there too," he said. "They are hitting prices, but they are also hitting supplies. They have to pay more for energy supplies, and in some countries like Pakistan, they actually procure energy. I'm having a hard time doing it. "

Coal mine canary

This dynamics is behind the increasingly chaotic scenes in these countries. It is in.

Just recently, a week ago, Sri Lanka's Minister of Electricity and Energysaid it would take several days for the country to run out of fuel. The dark warning came when the Colombo fuel station line stretched up to 3 km (nearly two miles) and there were clashes between police and civilians in many towns.
It's as if everyday life itself is closed. On Monday, public schools, public schools, and government-approved private schools were closed for at least two weeks. Public sector workers were told to rest Friday for the next three months —with a proposal to spend time growing their food

Pakistan Also needed to reduce that working week — going back from 6 to 5 days, but things might just get worse. The recently introduced six-day week was supposed to increase productivity and boost the economy.

Instead, hours of power outages every day afflict a country of 220 million people for at least a month, and Pakistan's largest city, Karachi's malls and restaurants, close early to save fuel. I was told to do it.

The country's energy supply is about 5,000 MW below demand. This is a shortage of being able to powerbetween 2 to 5 million homes in. } Some estimates
As Minister of Information MarriyumAurangzebstated it on June 7: "We are facing a serious crisis."

And the idea that such a problem is only a poor, developing country problem is dispelled by the Australian experience. Australia is one of the countries with the highest median world wealth per adult in the world.

Since May, "Lucky Country" has been operating without 25% of its coal-based energy capacity. This is due to unplanned outages due to supply interruptions and soaring prices, although there are also planned outages for maintenance.

Australians are now in demand for savings, as are their compatriots in Pakistan and Bangladesh, and Energy Minister Chris Bowen recently sent electricity to households in New South Wales, including Sydney, for two hours each night. I'm asking you not to use.

Bigger problems in the future

How these countries respond may be causing even greater problems than rising prices. I have.

Under public pressure, governments and politicians may want to turn back to cheaper and more polluted energy, such as coal, regardless of their impact on climate change.

And there are signs that this may have already begun.

In Australia, the Federal Energy Security Commission has proposedAll generators, including coal-fired power plants, are extra on the national grid to prevent electricity. Stop paid to maintain capacity. The Government of New South Wales is also using emergency electricity to redirect coal from mines in the state to local generators rather than abroad.

Both measures have been criticized by those who accuse the government of betraying its commitment to renewable energy.

In India, a country of 1.3 billion people that depends on coal for about 70% of its energy production, New Delhi's decision to increase coal imports could have even more serious environmental implications. I have.

Scientists say that significant reductions in coal mining are needed to limit the worst effects of global warming, which is one of the world's largest carbon emitters. It will be difficult to achieve unless you agree with.

"Double all types of fossil fuels in any country, India, Germany, or the United States will run out of carbon budgets. This is a global problem," Sandeep Pai said. Says. , Senior Research Leader of Energy Program, Strategic International Research Center.

Pai said India's decision was only a temporary "crisis response", but if the country continued to rely on coal a year or two later, it would be global warming. Will have a great impact on the war with.

"If these actions occur, we will run out of carbon budgets that are already shrinking in India, and the 1.5 or 2 degree goal will become even more difficult," Pai said in Paris. Mentioned and stated the goals of the agreement. Keeps the world's average temperature rise between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius.

If the temperature rise exceeds that range, scientistsmay be irreversible in some of the changes that occur on the Earth, even temporarily. It suggests that.

As Pai said, "India's size, size and demand mean that when coal actually doubles, it poses a very serious problem in terms of climate.