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Giants vs. Commanders prediction, line: Big Blue the pick

The New York Giants and Washington Commanders are two teams headed in opposite directions.

After starting the season 6-1, Big Blue have lost three of their last four games. Meanwhile, after a slow start, Washington is surging toward a playoff spot after winning five of its last six. Are we sure, however, that the Commanders should be road favorites in this game?

The line feels like a bit of an overreaction. The Giants have only lost two games at home this season, to the Cowboys early in the year and the no-show two weeks ago against the Lions. Quarterback Daniel Jones is 4-1 against Washington in his career, with three of those games decided by three points or fewer and another win coming in overtime. Expect another tight game on Sunday between two teams that match up evenly on paper.

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New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) throws the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half of the game between the Cowboys and the Giants at AT&T Stadium.

There are many different ways to handicap a game. Sometimes, there are stats and trends that support an argument. Other times, it’s really about the number. This is a case in which I believe the wrong team is favored. Washington is laying 2.5 points on the road, but I make this game Giants -2. That 4.5-point difference is too much for me to ignore, even if this will likely be a toss-up game in the fourth quarter.

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The Giants have been undervalued all year, and everyone wants to bury them after thy have lost three of four. I don’t think the Giants are dead yet, and I like them to get the “upset’ at home on Sunday.

The play: Giants +2.5