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In Florida, both sides of the abortion battle are waiting to see how far DeSantis will go

(CNN)Last weekRepublicans across the country have access to abortion in the state after the US Supreme Court rulingRoev overturnsmoving quickly to limit. Wade, Governor of FloridaRon DeSantishas so far shown little desire to respond to their urgency.

Instead, a typically candid Republican governor quietly celebrates the ruling that there is no longer a federal constitutional right to abortion, and makes a vague promise to "expand" on Twitter. Provided. The commitment to "protecting life", leaving supporters on both sides of the abortion debate, speculates on what the hard-charged DeSantis will do next.
For DeSantis, the decision on how far to promote abortion complicates not only his immediate future for him to be reelected this fall, but also hislong-term political ambitions. PossiblyDeSantis is widely regarded as a leading candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination and needs to open its courts to voters who are far more conservative than those facing November.

How DeSantis navigates these aspirations affects women and families far beyond the Florida border. Florida's 55 Abortion Clinics have long welcomed women from neighboring states in the South, where legal acquisition of procedures has become increasingly difficult for many years.

"There is a lot of fear and anxiety about what's going to happen," said Laura Goodhue, vice president of public policy for planned parent-child relationships in South Florida, East Florida, and North Florida. Says. "This is a real medical crisis with spillover."

DeSantis signed, the most restrictive abortion law in Florida's modern history, already this year. .. This is a 15-week ban, with no exception for women pregnant as a result of rape. , Incest or trafficking. However, after the Supreme Court's ruling, Florida is so far more tolerant than many of its neighbors,the so-called Trigger Act-a ban designed to take effect in the overthrow of the Roe v. Wade case- And the ban on legal issues is no longer immediately blocking access to the procedure.
Florida Voice for the Amborn against abortion andat least one Republicanhave appointed state legislators for a special session to further curb abortion. I called on DeSantis to return to Tallahassee. Even banning it altogether. Despite the bill being passed and DeSantis signing a celebration bill at a church in the Orlando area in April, many anti-abortion activists felt that the 15-week ban was not sufficiently advanced. Of the 80,000 abortions reported by the state in 2021, about 75,000 occurred during the first semester of abortion. This means that most of the procedures will continue to be permitted under the new state law. Kaiser Family Foundation

Historically, Florida has had an annual abortion per capita, according to Republican Senator Dennis Bucksley, who has been at the forefront of state legislatures. It is one of the most common states. The promotion of anti-abortion said Republicans will turn to DeSantis for the next step.

"His leadership is essential to this," Baxley said.

However, DeSantis quoted an ongoing court battle over Florida's new restrictions on abortion after the Supreme Court's decisiondraftwas leaked in early May. I tried to ease my expectations in a few weeks. Judges in the Leon County Circuit are expected to decide on Thursday whether to block the law before it comes into force on Friday.

"Our future legislative measures will inevitably depend on the resolution of these legal issues," DeSantis spokeswoman Christina Pouchau said in a statement to CNN. "We are in constant contact with the legislature as the proceedings progress and look forward to future policy plans to protect the fetus."

DeSantis decides Even so, the Democratic Party has little power to prevent it. The Republican Party controls the Legislature and the Senate with a healthy majority, and DeSantis, known for deciding the party's legislative agenda, can be recalled to Tallahassee at any time, even after the election.

Republicans "own games, build boards, build rules," said Lauren Book, leader of the Democratic Party of the State Senate.

Court formed by DeSantis

DeSantis' greatest impact on the future of abortion in Florida may already be felt.

FormerLike President Donald Trump, DeSantis as a candidate for 2018 admitted that conservative bases are focused on Supreme Court politics. .. He worked to convince Republican voters that there was a similar battle over the Florida High Court.

"The next governor will probably make three appointments to the state Supreme Court, a historically free court. They are activists. They will legislate from the bench," DeSantis said. Said at the Republican Primary Association. 2018 debate hosted by Fox. "I can tell you this: I am trying to apply the law faithfully and I am in the best position to identify candidates for nomination to the State Supreme Court who are not judicial activists."

Within a year of taking office, DeSantis dramatically reorganized seven state courts, nominated by two legal scholars nominated by Democratic Lawton Chiles on the bench and by Republican Jeb Bush. Instead of the moderates, he appointed three conservative judges. This year, another resignation of justice will give DeSantis a fourth chance to further influence the State Supreme Court. Like Trump, DeSantis screened his choice from the Federalist Association, a conservative legal body that advocates reading for textualists and originalists in the US Constitution.

"It's a huge influence," said John Stanberger, chairman of the Florida Family Policy Council, a conservative Christian organization that opposes abortion. "The court isn't just four or eight years. You're talking about 20 to 30 years ahead. I think his impact on the future is very important, quiet but powerful."

This new majority of DeSantis Appointed Courts may soon decide on the fate of Florida's 15-week abortion ban. Similar bans in other states are currently protected by a Supreme Court ruling last week, but Florida is in a unique situation. The State Constitution provides for the right to privacy, which is defined as "the right to be freed from government invasion of an individual's private life, unless otherwise specified in this document." The Florida Supreme Court has argued for decades that this privacy clause protects women's right to abortion.

Proponents of the right to abortion are not optimistic about their chances in front of this more conservative court, which has already shown a willingness to overturn the precedent set by previous judges.

"We don't think this court will see it like any other court," the book said. "Any protection is gone."

The question is how long it will take for the case to reach the State Supreme Court and make a judgment. It took seven years for the court to decide to uphold a law requiring women to wait 24 hours to have an abortion from their first doctor's visit.

It is also unclear whether the court will allow the ban to come into effect while the proceedings pass the legal system. The state-sueing abortion group is seeking an injunction to suspend execution for the time being. On Monday, a judge at the Tallahassee Circuit Court was currently considering the case and suggested that it could be bound by past State Supreme Court decisions.

Political priorities of the duel

Democrats facing a difficult battle this fall to defeat Desantis and win a seat in the state legislature Members replayed the November election as a referendum on women's health. Democratic CongressmanCharlie Crist, running for governor, has vowed to reject the Republican bill if DeSantis holds a special lame duck session to push new abortion restrictions. Agricultural Commissioner Nikki Fried, who is also seeking a Democratic nomination, told Fox that voters should elect Democrats between women and Republicans who are trying to deprive them of access to abortion.

"We are not going to sit vaguely, we just allow these various laws across the country to erode our right to privacy," Fried said. "Women are upset. Women are angry."

The new dynamics of the race after the Roe v. Wade case was eliminated, looking at what happened after November, Florida. It brings a challenge to DeSantis, who confronts the voters of. People close to DeSantis believe that an explosive victory in a traditional swing state like Florida is the best way to make a statement to participate in the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Contest. Stated. However, conventional knowledge suggests that voters (moderate and suburban women) needed to achieve a biased victory in Florida are also unlikely to support a drastic change to abortion access. ..

These expectations may include some of the fellow governors of DeSantis in other states, the state Republicans in the early presidential primary and caucuses in assessing the GOP field. It is different from the consideration of voters. Governor of TexasGreg Abbott, Governor of South DakotaKristi Noemand Governor of IowaKim Reynoldsare also considered potential 2024 candidates. Each is ahead of Desantis. Limit abortion in their state.
"There is no doubt that those in control, those who appreciate their leadership," said a conservative activist in Iowa,a long-standing influential voice. Bob Banderplatz, who has raised it, said. At the Republican Presidential Nomination Contest in 101}. "And undoubtedly, in these primaries where you're trying to win the principle conservatives, you're tearing your hair to say,'We've gone further to protect the sanctity of life.'

"It's about whether people believe in the coherence of their beliefs about the dignity of the coming life."

In the past, DeSantis has vowed to uphold a law to stop abortion after a heartbeat is detected, similar to the ban signed by Abbott and Reynolds. Mr. Stanberger said he expected it to be a legislative route when DeSantis and the Republicans decided to act, but it was unclear when that would happen.

Baxley said he didn't think he needed to move forward and asked state legislators to carefully consider ways to improve the outcome of pregnancy as well as to limit abortion.

"This is a very big turning point. I want to do this right," Baxley said.

Republicans were asked if they should give more power to law enforcement to punish women seeking abortion outside the state, people and businesses that support them, "everything is at the table. There is a great opportunity to change this. There is a direction, but all those ideas need to be considered. "