After spending virtually the entire season in first place in the National League East, the New York Mets now need a minor miracle to leapfrog the Atlanta Braves and win the division.
Atlanta’s magic number is down to one, meaning just one Braves victory (they’re playing a three-game set against the Marlins) or one Mets loss would clinch the division for Atlanta.
There’s no time to dwell on the situation for the Mets, who return home to host the Washington Nationals at a wet, windy Citi Field on Monday night. Despite their demoralizing form, the Mets currently sit as a huge favorite over the Nats.
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Nationals vs. Mets odds
Odds provided by FanDuel
- Washington Nationals: +250
- New York Mets: -310
- Over/Under: 7.5
Nationals vs. Mets Prediction: Nationals +250 (FanDuel)
After rolling out Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Chris Bassitt in Atlanta, the Mets will look to Carlos Carrasco to right the ship on a dreary evening in Queens. Carrasco has been steady throughout the season, posting a 3.95 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 148 innings of work, but the veteran right-hander has shown a bit of a dip in form over the past two weeks.
Carrasco has allowed seven runs, 11 hits, and three walks combined over his last two outings and didn’t get beyond the fifth inning in either outing. Whether or not Carrasco’s current form is just a blip on an otherwise decent campaign or something to be worried about remains to be seen, but it does portray the kind of pitcher he is at this point in his career. If Carrasco doesn’t have his best stuff, he’s going to get hit pretty hard.
According to StatCast, Carrasco ranks in the 37th percentile in hard-hit rate, 50th percentile in barrel rate, and 52nd in average exit velocity. His expected batting average, expected wOBA, and expected slugging percentage are all below average, as well.
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Even if he’s struggling with his form right now, Carrasco is still the A-side of the pitching matchup on Monday night against spot-starter Cory Abbott. It’s hard to make a case for Abbott, who boasts a 5.11 ERA and 5.73 xFIP over 44 innings of work as a reliever and starter this season, but he won’t be asked to dominate this lineup but rather just keep pace with Carrasco, which is a manageable task, especially at this kind of price.
Reading too much into the circumstances can often get you in trouble as a bettor, but you’ll hardly find a bigger let-down spot in a baseball season than this one. Throw in the fact that Sean Zerillo’s MLB Model projects the Nationals as a +188 favorite on the road, and you can start to see how this turns into an upset on Monday night.
