Democratic Troublesome Signs: "Party Switchers" Strongly Leaning to the Republicans

Washington — Political change is beginning to take hold across the United States as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who have boosted Democratic interests in recent years are becoming Republicans.

Last year, more than one million voters turned to the Republican Party in 43 states, according to voter registration data analyzed by the Associated Press. Previously unreported figures reflect what has happened in almost every region of the country (Democratic and Republican states, cities and small towns) since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump. I am.

However, the shift is more pronounced and there is no more dangerous place for the Democrats than in the suburbs where highly educated swapping voters who have opposed Trump's Republicans appear to be retreating in recent years. Last year, far more people switched to Republicans in suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. Republicans have also established positions in counties around medium-sized cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. Raleigh, NC; Augusta, Georgia; Des Moines, Iowa.

Ben Smith, who lives in the suburbs of Larimer County in northern Denver, Colorado, reluctantly registered as a Republican earlier in the year after heightened concerns. Said. Democratic support in some areas for compulsory COVID-19 vaccine, lack of party ability to quell violent crimes, and frequent focus on racial justice.

"It's better to reject the left than to accept the right," said Smith, a 37-year-old professional counselor who began when the Democratic transition was registered five or six years ago. Said. Libertarian.

According to political data company L2, AP surveyed about 1.7 million voters who are likely to have switched affiliations in 42 states where data exists in the last 12 months. L2 uses a combination of state voter records and statistical modeling to determine party affiliation. Party switching is not uncommon, but the data show a clear reversal from Trump's tenure, when the Democratic Party enjoyed a slight advantage in the number of party switchers across the country.

But last year, about two-thirds of the 1.7 million voters who changed their party affiliation moved to the Republican Party. A total of more than 1 million have become Republicans, compared to about 630,000 who have become Democrats.

Widespread migration of more than one million voters is a small part of all U.S. voters and is a widespread Republican party in the November midterm elections that determine control of Congress and dozens of governors. We do not guarantee successful success. Democrats hope that the Supreme Court's decision to dismiss the Roe v. Wade caseon Friday will inspire supporters, especially in the suburbs, ahead of the interim period.

Still, details about party switchers give a disastrous warning to Democrats who were already concerned about the macro effects that will shape the political situation this fall.

About four months before the election day, the Democratic Party has no clear strategy to deal with Mr. Biden's unpopularity and the overwhelming fear of voters. Republicans offer few unique policy solutions, but the GOP has worked effectively to take advantage of Democratic shortcomings.

Republicans benefited last year as suburban parents became more and more dissatisfied with the prolonged closure of pandemic-related schools. AndInflation has recently intensified, and, the Republican National Committee has set up gas stations on the outskirts of Swing State, such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, to connect Biden. Hosts a voter registration event at. Government to record high gas pricesRepublicans also associated the Democratic President with the ongoinginflation shortage

"Biden and the Democrats haven't had bad contact with the American people, which is why voters are flocking to the Republicans," RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel told AP. She predicted that "the suburbs of the United States will be in the red in the coming cycle" because of "Biden's gas rise, border opening crisis, milk powder shortage, and increased crime."

The Democratic National Committee declined to comment when asked about the recent surge in voters who switched to the Republican Party.

And Republican officials quickly acknowledged the shift's achievements, but the phenomenon gained momentum shortly after Trump left the White House. Still, the specific reason for the shift remains unclear.

At least some of the newly registered Republicans are, in fact, Democrats who went to vote against Trump-supporting candidates in the GOP primary. Such voters may vote for democracy again in November of this year.

However, the range and breadth of party switching suggests that something bigger is working.

Last year, almost every state (including those without a prominent Republican primary) moved in the same direction as a thousand voters became Republicans. Only Virginia, which held an out-of-year election in 2021, saw Democrats particularly on the rise last year. But even there, Democrats were wiped out in state-wide elections last fall.

In Iowa, Democrats held the party changer advantage by a two-to-one difference. This is the flip side of last year, and the Republicans are ahead with similar amounts. The same dramatic change is happening in Ohio.

In Florida, Republicans captured 58 percent of party switchers in the last few years of the Trump era. Now, last year, they command 70 percent. And in Pennsylvania, Republicans accounted for 58 to 63 percent of party changers.

The current advantage of Republicans among party changers is that they are particularly ferocious in the suburbs of the country.

AP found that the suburban "Fringe" counties had a greater Republican advantage over smaller towns and counties, based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classification. Republicans boosted party changer share in 168 of the 235 suburban counties surveyed by AP last year, compared to the last year of the Trump era-72 percent.

These included suburban counties in Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Ohio, Virginia, and Washington.

Republicans have also established themselves in suburban counties, where the CDC is concentrated in medium-sized cities and is called the "medium-sized metro." More than 62% of these counties, or a total of 164 people, have grown Republicans. They range from counties in the northern suburbs of Denver, such as Larimar, to counties in the Los Angeles region, such as Ventura and Santa Barbara in California.

Republican dominance was almost universal, but in some places it was stronger than in others.

For example, in Lorain County, Ohio, just outside Cleveland, switchers from almost every party last year became Republicans. It's even when the Democrats captured three-quarters of those changing parties in the same county at the end of the Trump era.

Some conservative leaders have to do a better job of explaining to suburban voters what they support, not what they are against. I am worried that the profits of the suburbs of the GOP will be limited.

Emily Seidel, head of Koch-backed grassroots organization Americans for Prosperity, sees her network directly seeing suburban voters away from Democrats representing "extreme policy positions." Said that.

"But that doesn't mean they're ready to vote against those lawmakers. Frankly, they're skeptical of both options they have." Said Seidel. "Lessons here: Candidates must make their point. They must give voters something in favor, not just against them."

Returning to Larimer County, Colorado, 39-year-old housewife Jessica Cloels says she couldn't vote for the Democratic Party, even though she was a trusted Democratic voter until 2016.

She persuaded her to switch to her single "that moment", but by 2020 she said the Democrats "left me behind."

"The party itself is no longer a Democrat, but a progressive socialist," she said, especially accusing mR. Biden of plans to eliminate billions of dollars in student debt.