In a recent development, Alexander Lukashenko, the long-standing president of Belarus, has made significant claims regarding the military situation at the Belarus-Ukraine border. According to a report by Reuters on August 18, 2024, Lukashenko stated that Ukraine has positioned over 120,000 troops along their shared frontier.
In response to what he perceives as an "aggressive policy," Lukashenko announced that Belarus has deployed approximately one-third of its armed forces along the entire border. The exact number of troops was not specified, but it's worth noting that Belarus' professional army consists of about 48,000 troops, with an additional 12,000 state border troops, as per the 2022 International Institute for Strategic Studies' Military Balance.
These assertions come against the backdrop of heightened tensions in the region. On August 6, 2024, Ukrainian forces reportedly breached Russia's western border, an event that has been viewed as a significant setback for Russian military leadership.
It's important to consider these claims in the context of Belarus' recent history and its relationship with neighboring countries. Belarus, which gained independence in 1991 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, shares a 1,084 km border with Ukraine. The country, often referred to as "Europe's last dictatorship," has been under Lukashenko's rule since 1994, making him one of the longest-serving European leaders.
Viktor Khrenin, Belarus' Defence Minister, expressed concerns on August 16, 2024, about the possibility of an armed provocation from Ukraine, describing the situation at the shared border as "tense." Lukashenko went further, claiming that the Belarus-Ukraine border is now more heavily mined than ever before, warning of potentially severe losses for any Ukrainian forces attempting to cross.
It's worth noting that Kyiv has not immediately responded to these allegations. In fact, just a day before Lukashenko's statement, on August 17, 2024, Ukrainian officials reported no signs of a Belarusian troop buildup at the border.
The situation reflects the complex geopolitical landscape of the region. Belarus, a landlocked country with a population of approximately 9.4 million, has strong ties with Russia and is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led military alliance. The country allowed Russian troops to use its territory during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a move that led to international sanctions.
As tensions continue to simmer, the international community watches closely. The Belarus-Ukraine border, part of which runs through the Białowieża Forest, Europe's largest remaining primeval forest, remains a focal point of regional security concerns.
"Seeing their aggressive policy, we have introduced there and placed in certain points - in case of war, they would be defence - our military along the entire border."
This situation underscores the ongoing challenges in Eastern European relations and the delicate balance of power in the region. As events unfold, the international community will undoubtedly continue to monitor developments along this crucial border.