The decades-long Syrian conflict reached a decisive moment last week when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces entered Damascus forcing Bashar al-Assad to flee his familys long-held power seat
The quick-moving offensive caught many off-guard as regime forces (weakened by recent events) simply gave up their positions. This sudden change came after about 13 years of back-and-forth fighting that killed hundreds of thousands of people and made millions leave their homes
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani leads HTS which controls north-west Syria: his group has changed over time trying to show its more open to different groups even though it started with hard-line roots. The US still sees them as terrorists but Jolani wants that changed
Russia and Iran lost big here - they backed Assad for years and got stuff in return:
- Military bases for Russia
- Weapon transfer routes for Iran
- Support from local groups
- Strategic ports access
The US policy in Syria wasnt great through three presidents terms - they wanted Assad gone but didnt do much to make it happen. Economic pressure didnt work; Assad just found new ways to get money (like making and selling illegal drugs)
Now different groups control various parts of Syria - the Syrian Democratic Forces have moved west the Syrian National Army holds some northern areas; and HTS controls Damascus. Its a mess that needs fixing but the US has to step in and help make these groups work together
The fall of Assad gives America a chance to push Russia out block Irans influence and maybe even get Syria and Israel to talk peace. But first these different Syrian groups need to learn how to share power and run things together - something thats gonna need lots of help from outside