Recent data reveals a significant decline in Chinese marriages, reaching the lowest level since 2013 in the first half of 2024. Only 3.43 million couples exchanged vows during this period, marking a decrease of 498,000 compared to the previous year.
This downward trend in marriages is closely linked to China's declining birth rates, a matter of growing concern for policymakers. The connection between marriage and childbirth remains strong in China, where couples often need to present a marriage certificate to register their child and access state benefits.
Several factors contribute to this decline:
- Economic challenges
- Rising living costs
- Fewer young people
- Gender imbalance in the marriageable population
- Changing attitudes towards marriage
He Yafu, a demographic expert, predicts that the 2024 marriage rate could fall to its lowest point since 1980. This projection is particularly significant as 1980 marked the implementation of China's one-child policy, which was officially ended in 2015.
The economic landscape plays a crucial role in this trend. China's GDP growth rate in 2023 was 5.2%, the lowest in decades excluding the pandemic year. This slowdown, coupled with high housing prices in major cities, makes it challenging for young people to consider marriage and family formation.
The average age of first marriage in China has been steadily increasing, reaching 28.67 for men and 26.84 for women in 2020. This shift reflects changing social norms and priorities among young Chinese adults.
"The declining trend in China's birth rate in the long run will be difficult to fundamentally change unless substantial childbirth support policies are implemented in the future to address this challenge."
China's birth rate in 2022 was 6.77 births per 1,000 people, the lowest on record. The government has introduced various policies to encourage childbirth, including extended maternity leave and financial incentives. However, these measures have yet to significantly impact the declining trend.
The "lying flat" movement in China, representing young people's rejection of societal pressures, including marriage and career advancement, further complicates the issue. This cultural shift, combined with the high cost of raising a child (estimated at around 485,000 yuan or $67,000 to age 18 in Chinese cities), contributes to the reluctance to marry and start families.
In an attempt to address these challenges, China's Civil Affairs University has announced a new undergraduate program focused on marriage-related industries and culture. However, this initiative has been met with skepticism on social media, with users questioning its relevance in the face of declining marriage rates.
As China grapples with an aging population expected to peak around 2050, with about 35% over 60, the implications of declining marriage and birth rates become increasingly significant for the country's demographic future.