A recent analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has shed light on the potential economic impacts of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's proposed plans. The report, released yesterday, suggests that both candidates' policies could significantly increase the United States' national debt over the next decade.
According to the analysis, Vice President Harris' economic proposals could potentially add $3.5 trillion to the national debt by 2034. This projection comes despite her campaign's assertion that proposed investments in the middle class and housing would be fully offset by increased taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals. The Harris campaign maintains a commitment to fiscal responsibility, aiming to support the economy while simultaneously reducing the deficit.
In contrast, the study indicates that former President Trump's economic ideas could result in a more substantial increase to the national debt, ranging from $7.5 trillion to as much as $15.2 trillion over the same period. This projection persists despite Trump's claims that strong economic growth under his leadership would mitigate concerns about deficits.
The 34-page report highlights the pressing issue of government borrowing that will confront the winner of next month's election. As of today, the total federal debt held by the public exceeds $34 trillion, a figure that has more than doubled since 2010. This debt is expected to continue growing as revenues struggle to keep pace with the increasing costs of mandatory spending programs such as Social Security and Medicare.
It's worth noting that interest payments on the national debt are projected to be the fastest-growing part of the federal budget. The analysis emphasizes that the cost of servicing this debt in dollar terms has now surpassed the expenses for national defense or providing healthcare to elderly Americans.
Neither candidate has placed significant emphasis on deficit reduction in their campaign platforms. However, multiple analyses, including those by Harvard University professor Jason Furman and other institutions, consistently show Harris as being more fiscally responsible than Trump.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget's analysis estimates that Harris' policy ideas could potentially add $3.5 trillion to the national debt through 2034. This projection includes $4.6 trillion in tax reductions, partially offset by approximately $4 trillion in higher taxes on corporations and wealthy individuals.
"Kamala Harris is committed to fiscal responsibility — making investments that will support our economy, while paying for them and reducing the deficit at the same time."
On the other hand, Trump's proposals are estimated to add $7.5 trillion to the debt, with $2.7 trillion in tariff revenues insufficient to cover $9.2 trillion in tax cuts and additional expenditures. The analysis also presents alternative scenarios, with the national debt potentially increasing by up to $15.2 trillion under Trump's plans.
It's important to note that these projections are based on interpretations of the candidates' statements and proposals, and actual outcomes may vary. The U.S. has never defaulted on its debt obligations, but the growing debt-to-GDP ratio, which exceeded 100% for the first time in 2020, raises concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability.
As the November 5th election approaches, voters will need to consider the potential economic implications of each candidate's proposals. While both plans are projected to increase the national debt, the analysis suggests a clear difference in the scale of their potential impacts on the country's fiscal future.