Recent polls indicate that Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, has gained a slight lead over her Republican rival, Donald Trump. This development comes as Harris's favorability ratings have seen a significant boost since she secured the nomination.
An NBC News poll conducted from September 13-17, 2024, shows Harris leading Trump by 5 percentage points among registered voters. The survey, which has a margin of error of 3 percentage points, revealed that 48% of respondents viewed Harris positively, a substantial increase from 32% in July. This 16-point jump represents the largest increase in favorability for a politician in NBC's polling since President George W. Bush's ratings surged following the September 11, 2001 attacks.
Donald Trump's favorability also saw a slight increase, rising from 38% in July to 40% in the September poll. However, this modest gain was overshadowed by Harris's significant leap in public perception.
A separate CBS News poll, conducted from September 18-20, 2024, corroborated these findings, showing Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points among likely voters, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
It's important to note that while national polls provide valuable insights into voter sentiment, the U.S. presidential election is ultimately decided by the Electoral College system. This means that the outcomes in key battleground states will likely determine the final result of the November 5, 2024 election.
Kamala Harris, 59, brings a wealth of experience to her candidacy. Before becoming Vice President, she served as a U.S. Senator from California and as the state's Attorney General. If elected, Harris would make history as the first woman to serve as President in the nation's 248-year history.
Donald Trump, 78, is making his third consecutive bid for the White House after losing to Joe Biden in 2020. Trump continues to face legal challenges related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, which he falsely claims was marred by widespread voter fraud.
Political analysts suggest that the race has shifted from a referendum on the current administration to a comparison between the two candidates. Amy Walter, publisher and editor-in-chief of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, noted on NBC's "Meet the Press" that Harris "has been able to change this from a race that was a referendum on Joe Biden to a race that is a referendum on Donald Trump."
As the campaign progresses, both candidates will need to navigate the complexities of the U.S. electoral system. With 538 electors in the Electoral College, a candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. This system has led to situations where a candidate can win the presidency without winning the popular vote, as occurred most recently with Trump's victory in 2016.
The 2024 election is shaping up to be another closely watched and potentially historic contest, with Harris vying to become the first woman president and Trump seeking to return to the White House after his controversial term. As voters prepare to cast their ballots, they will be weighing not only the candidates' policies and experience but also their potential to lead the nation through its current challenges and into the future.