In the wake of President Joe Biden's decision to forgo reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the Democratic nominee, facing off against Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. Recent polls indicate a tight contest, with Harris holding a slight edge nationally and in key swing states.
According to The Washington Post's poll average, Harris leads in six out of nine crucial swing states. If these leads hold, she could secure 64 electoral votes to Trump's 43, resulting in a narrow 14-vote Electoral College victory. However, the race remains highly competitive, with Harris's advantage in three states being less than 3 percentage points.
A recent Marquette University Law School poll in Wisconsin, a state decided by less than a percentage point in the last two presidential elections, shows Harris with a 4-point lead. More significantly, the poll reveals a surge in Democratic voter enthusiasm. The percentage of Democrats expressing high enthusiasm for voting in November has increased from 60% to 70% over the past month, while Republican enthusiasm remains steady at around 60%.
"The enthusiasm gap we're seeing could be a game-changer in a close election. It's not just about who people support, but who actually shows up to vote."
As the election approaches, voter turnout and enthusiasm have become critical factors. The U.S. has historically had one of the lowest voter turnout rates among developed countries, making get-out-the-vote efforts crucial. Early voting, set to begin in several states within days, provides an opportunity for campaigns to secure votes early. Historically, Democrats have shown strength in early voting efforts.
Taylor Swift's recent endorsement of Harris has garnered attention, but her impact on voter registration may prove more consequential. Swift's call for her fans to register and vote has already shown results, potentially increasing turnout among young women, a demographic likely to favor Harris.
It's worth noting that the U.S. has never had a female president, despite women gaining the right to vote over a century ago with the ratification of the 19th Amendment in 1920. The first woman to run for president was Victoria Woodhull in 1872, long before women could even vote nationally.
As Election Day on November 5, 2024, draws near, both campaigns face the challenge of mobilizing their supporters. With polls suggesting a close race, the outcome may ultimately depend on which side succeeds in getting their voters to the polls, rather than solely on voters' preferences.