A recent poll conducted by the Marquette Law School in Wisconsin reveals a notable shift in voter preferences for the 2024 presidential election. The survey, which compared hypothetical matchups between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, as well as President Joe Biden and Trump, offers insights into the changing political landscape.
According to the poll, Harris currently holds a 4-point lead over Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin, a crucial swing state with 10 electoral votes. This contrasts with a hypothetical Biden-Trump matchup, where Biden would trail by 3 points, representing a significant 7-point swing in favor of the Democratic ticket.
The most striking aspect of the poll is the surge in support for Harris among younger voters. In the under-30 age group, Harris outperforms Biden by 11 points, while Trump loses 5 points, resulting in a 16-point shift. This trend extends to the 30-44 age bracket, where Harris narrows the gap by 11 points.
Notably, Harris also shows improved performance among independents and Democratic-leaning independents, groups that often include a higher proportion of younger voters. The Vice President's lead among under-30 voters in Wisconsin (30 points) surpasses Biden's 2020 performance in the state (23 points).
This shift is mirrored in national polls. YouGov polling for the Economist indicates that Harris's lead over Trump among younger voters has expanded from 13 points to 31 points in recent weeks.
The importance of the youth vote cannot be overstated. The 2020 election saw increased turnout among voters aged 18-29, and this trend could be crucial in 2024. Encouragingly for Democrats, the proportion of young voters expressing enthusiasm about voting in November has risen from 25% to 33% over the past month.
While these poll results are promising for the Democratic ticket, it's important to note that the election is still months away, and Harris's campaign is in its early stages. Additionally, recent years have shown that polling can sometimes be inaccurate.
Nevertheless, this shift in younger voter support represents the kind of change Democrats have been hoping for to prevent Trump from reclaiming the presidency. As the campaign progresses, all eyes will be on whether Harris can maintain and build upon this momentum among crucial demographic groups.