The 2024 US presidential race has undergone a significant transformation following Joe Biden's decision to step aside. Recent polls indicate that Kamala Harris, now the presumptive Democratic nominee, has reshaped the electoral landscape, reducing the number of "double-haters" - voters who dislike both major candidates.
A Monmouth University poll reveals a stark contrast between the Trump-Biden and Trump-Harris scenarios. In the former, about 20% of respondents viewed both candidates unfavorably. However, when comparing Trump and Harris, this group halved in size. Notably, those who previously disliked both Biden and Trump now favor Harris by a 5-to-1 margin.
Harris's appeal extends beyond former double-haters. The poll shows she enjoys stronger support within her own party compared to Biden or Trump. Three-quarters of Democrats view Harris very positively, surpassing the percentage of Republicans who feel the same about Trump. Among independents, Harris maintains a balanced favorability rating.
These findings align with recent YouGov polling conducted for the Economist. The survey, which included vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance, showed Democrats outperforming Republicans in popularity at both presidential and vice presidential levels.
"Even members of their own parties are more likely to describe Harris as intelligent than Trump. Harris has slightly smaller advantages on 'hard-working' and 'qualified.'"
Interestingly, despite Trump's efforts to portray Harris as unintelligent, this perception hasn't gained traction. Americans are more likely to describe Harris as intelligent compared to Trump, even within their respective parties.
However, the race is far from over. The Trump campaign and its allies are just beginning to target Harris and Walz with negative rhetoric and advertisements. The concept of an "October surprise" - a news event that could potentially influence the election outcome - remains a possibility as the campaign progresses.
As the election approaches, it's worth noting that the US presidential election system allows for the possibility of a candidate winning the presidency without securing the popular vote, due to the Electoral College system. This unique aspect of American democracy could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 race.
For now, Harris holds a strong position against Trump, with voters showing a preference for her over Biden. The campaign's focus has shifted from being defined by double-haters to potentially being shaped by Harris enthusiasts. As the race unfolds, it remains to be seen how these early indicators will translate into electoral success come November.