At this weeks G-20 gathering in Rio‚ global decision-makers cant stop talking about one absent figure - Donald Trump. His potential return to power is making everyone re-think their plans
The financial world seems less worried than before: Wall street shows positive signs and the US dollar stays strong. However big changes might come in trade policies - experts think Trump will push for new deals with 20% basic tariffs (but probably not the talked-about 60% China tax)
Some fresh faces are joining Trumps team: Marco Rubio‚ Michael Waltz‚ and Pete Hegseth will shape foreign policy. But its Elon Musk who gets special attention - hes taking part in key talks without any official role (which is pretty un-usual for US politics)
The world map might look different soon: China feels pressure from its weak economy; Ukraine bonds go up as markets expect some kind of peace deal. Even Iran shows signs it might want to talk - their UN guy just had a long meeting with Musk
Energy stuff is getting interesting too. US oil output could hit 14-million barrels per day next year; but clean power wont stop growing. Even big oil companies want to keep some climate deals going because green tech is now good business
- Europe might spend more on NATO
- Trade rules will change fast
- Border control will get stricter
- Middle East could see new deals
The funny thing is - many countries that didnt like Trump before are now ready to work with him. As one expert puts it: “They will kiss his ass much harder than four years ago“ Because at the end of day its still Americas game to play
The markets are hopeful—rightly in my view—that there will be a near-term ceasefire imposed with pressure from Trump on both Zelensky and Putin