In recent months, Iran has emerged as a significant concern for the United States, with allegations of election-related hacking and assassination plots against former officials. These developments underscore the complex relationship between the two nations and highlight Iran's evolving strategies in the digital and physical realms.
Iran's cyber capabilities have grown significantly since the early 2000s, when the country faced the Stuxnet virus attack on its nuclear program. This incident, believed to be orchestrated by Israel and the US, served as a catalyst for Iran to develop its own cyber warfare capabilities. Since then, Iranian hackers have been linked to numerous attacks on various targets, including the Trump campaign, Iranian expatriates, and government officials.
The low cost and high potential rewards of hacking make it an attractive option for Iran. With over 80 million internet users and a penetration rate exceeding 90%, the country has a substantial pool of potential cyber operatives. Iranian universities, some affiliated with the Defense Ministry and the Revolutionary Guard Corps, provide a steady stream of skilled computer science graduates.
"Iran, having been a victim of a similar cyberattack against its own oil industry in April 2012, has demonstrated a clear ability to learn from the capabilities and actions of others."
Iran's hacking attempts on US targets have included banks and even a small dam near New York City. While Russia is considered the primary foreign threat to US elections, officials remain concerned about Iran's activities. The country's phishing attempts during the presidential campaign have relied on sending numerous misleading emails, hoping to gain access to sensitive information.
Beyond cyber threats, Iran has a long history of targeting opponents abroad. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the country began targeting perceived enemies, including members of the former Shah's government and critics of the new theocracy. The "chain murders" of the 1980s and 1990s targeted activists and journalists both inside and outside Iran.
In recent years, Iran has renewed its campaign of targeting opponents abroad, sometimes capturing and bringing them to Iran for trial. The country has also been linked to assassination plots against former US officials, including John Bolton and potentially Donald Trump. These threats are taken seriously given Iran's history and its vow to exact revenge for the 2020 drone strike that killed Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani.
As tensions persist between Iran and the United States, the dual threats of cyber attacks and physical violence continue to pose significant challenges for US security. With Iran's nuclear program remaining a point of contention and the country's cyber capabilities ranked among the top 10 globally, the need for vigilance and robust defense measures remains paramount.