In a surprising turn of events, Nebraska's 2024 Senate race has become unexpectedly competitive, challenging the state's traditionally strong Republican hold. Dan Osborn, an independent candidate with a populist appeal, has emerged as a formidable challenger to incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer, who secured a comfortable victory in 2018.
Osborn's campaign has gained significant traction, attracting millions in outside support and forcing national Republicans to invest in a race they previously considered secure. This development comes as a shock in a state that Donald Trump carried by 19 percentage points in 2020.
Fischer has responded to the challenge by securing Trump's endorsement and launching a campaign to portray Osborn as a "Trojan horse" for Democrats. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has also stepped in, providing financial support for anti-Osborn advertisements.
Limited polling suggests a single-digit race, with Osborn leading in Nebraska's only competitive House district. The contest has seen $7.8 million in advertising spending as of October 2024, a substantial amount for a state typically considered a Republican stronghold.
Osborn, an Omaha union leader, gained national prominence after leading a successful 11-week strike at a Kellogg plant in 2021. His campaign has focused on appealing across party lines, criticizing Fischer for alleged corporate ties and breaking a term-limits pledge.
Nebraska's unique political landscape may contribute to Osborn's appeal. The state is known for its nonpartisan, unicameral legislature and its practice of awarding some electoral college votes by congressional district. This system reflects a sense of political independence that aligns with Osborn's campaign.
"People are just thirsty for a change, on both sides of the aisle. People are just sick of it — they're sick of the division, they're sick of politicians doing corporate bidding."
The race has attracted significant outside support, with super PACs like Retire Career Politicians and Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety investing millions in Osborn's campaign. This influx of funding has raised questions about the potential impact on Senate control.
As the election approaches, Nebraska voters face a choice that could have far-reaching consequences. The state, known for its agricultural heritage and unique landmarks like Chimney Rock and the Nebraska Sand Hills, now finds itself at the center of national political attention.
The outcome of this race could potentially affect the balance of power in the Senate, making Nebraska's decision crucial beyond its borders. As the Cornhusker State prepares to cast its votes, the nation watches with keen interest to see if an independent candidate can upset the established political order in this traditionally Republican stronghold.