In the lead-up to the November 5, 2024 election, North Carolina finds itself at the center of a closely watched political battle. A recent Washington Post poll reveals a tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris for the state's electoral votes.
The survey, conducted from September 25-29, 2024, shows Trump with a slight edge of 50% to Harris's 48% among likely voters. This narrow margin echoes the state's 2020 results, where Trump secured victory by just 1.3 percentage points. North Carolina, which joined the Union on November 21, 1789, as the 12th state, has not supported a Democratic presidential nominee since Barack Obama's razor-thin victory in 2008.
While the presidential race remains competitive, the gubernatorial contest presents a different picture. Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein holds a substantial lead over Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson, with 54% to 38% support among likely voters. Robinson's campaign has faced significant challenges following allegations of inappropriate online behavior, which have impacted his favorability ratings.
The poll was conducted shortly before Hurricane Helene struck the Southeast, causing widespread damage and loss of life in North Carolina. The state, known for its 300-mile Atlantic coastline, faced severe flooding and infrastructure damage, particularly in western regions like Asheville, nestled in the Great Smoky Mountains.
Voter enthusiasm remains high across party lines, with 93% of registered Republicans and Democrats expressing certainty about voting. Key issues driving voter decisions include the economy, protecting democracy, and public safety. Trump maintains an advantage on economic and immigration matters, while voters are split on which candidate would better protect democracy and support the middle class.
"Overall, 59 percent of North Carolina voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 32 percent say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases."
The state's stance on abortion rights has become a significant factor in the gubernatorial race, with 59% of voters supporting legal abortion in all or most cases. This issue highlights the contrast between Stein's pro-choice position and Robinson's staunch opposition to abortion.
Demographically, Trump leads among male and white voters, while Harris enjoys strong support from Black voters and urban areas, particularly in the Research Triangle of Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill – home to the oldest public university in the United States, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
The poll also reveals ongoing debates about election integrity, with 54% of North Carolina voters believing the 2020 election was conducted fairly, while 35% maintain unfounded claims of voter fraud. This divide significantly influences current voting intentions.
As the Tar Heel State, known for its rich history from the Lost Colony of Roanoke to the Wright brothers' first flight, prepares for another crucial election, its diverse landscape – from the Biltmore Estate to the sweet potato fields – serves as a backdrop to a contest that could shape the nation's future.