The Pentagonʼs mid-2024 Arctic policy marks a big shift - for the first time China is named as the main issue even though its not an Arctic country. This differs from past strategies (back in 2013 China wasnt even mentioned; by 2019 it got some attention but wasnt the focus)
In global power-games China might be Americas biggest rival but the Arctic is different - Russia owns almost half the region and has real muscle there. The eight-nation Arctic Council shows how local power works: seven members are NATO allies who dont want Beijing getting too involved
Alaska plays a key role in U.S defense plans - its been important since cold-war times and now helps with Indo-pacific operations (which explains why the Pentagon cares so much about China here)
Hereʼs what China actually does in the Arctic:
* Failed attempts to invest in resources outside Russia
* Limited success even in Russian projects
* No real military presence except a few ship visits
* Some research stations that might have dual-use purposes
* Joint air-patrols with Russia near Alaska
The European Arctic matters most - people live there business happens there and Russias Northern Fleet keeps its nuclear subs there. These subs are Americas only real Arctic-based threat; plus Russian ships could mess with undersea cables and pipelines (like what happened to Nord Stream about 2 years ago)
If this is not the best clearly written strategy that Iʼve ever seen then its got to be in the top two or three
The new strategy looks good on paper but its more about China-in-the-Arctic than the Arctic itself - this might make us miss whats really going on with Russia in northern Europe