As the United States approaches its 2024 presidential election, a bipartisan commission has issued a stark warning about the global strategic challenges facing the next administration. The Commission on U.S. National Defense Strategy, established by Congress in 2022, released a report highlighting the potential for major conflicts in the near future.
The commission, comprised of former officials including Jane Harman and Eric Edelman, emphasizes that the U.S. is currently unprepared for simultaneous conflicts with adversaries such as China and Russia. This assessment comes at a time when U.S. military planners are preparing for extensive exercises in both Europe and the Pacific in 2025.
These exercises, drawing inspiration from Cold War-era operations like REFORGER (Return of Forces to Germany), aim to demonstrate U.S. commitment to its allies. The Pacific component, coordinated with Australia's TALISMAN SABRE exercise, will include an Air Force element dubbed "REFORPAC".
The commission's report underscores the need for comprehensive reforms within the Pentagon and broader government structures. It calls for increased defense resources and a national dialogue on the risks faced by the country. The strategic situation is described as the most challenging since 1945, with multiple complex factors at play.
"The coming years include the potential for near-term major war, perhaps simultaneously with China, Russia and others, for which the U.S. is not prepared today."
Despite these warnings, both major U.S. presidential candidates have primarily focused their campaigns on domestic issues. The Democratic National Convention in Chicago has emphasized optimism and inclusion, while the Republican narrative centers on addressing internal challenges and reconsidering long-term commitments to allies.
The report also highlights concerns about industrial and human capacity to engage in multiple simultaneous conflicts. This comes as the U.S. continues to support Ukraine in its ongoing offensive and maintains its commitment to NATO allies in Europe.
Taiwan's defense preparedness has emerged as a critical issue, with the island nation recently increasing its conscription period to one year. However, its current defense spending of 2.5% of GDP is considered insufficient by some experts, given the potential threat from China.
As the U.S. navigates these complex global challenges, the next administration will face difficult decisions about prioritizing resources and commitments. The outcome of the November 2024 election will significantly influence how the country addresses these pressing strategic issues in an increasingly uncertain world.