In late-2024 Joe Biden made a choice to let Ukraine use ATACMS missiles for deep strikes‚ but this step wont change the wars basic math problems. The US-made long-range weapons (which cost a lot to make) face serious supply limits
Ukraineʼs army has big trouble with numbers - theyʼve got about 50k soldiers against Russias 350k troops. The situation got worse when Kim Jong Unʼs forces showed up in Kursk area last month; its not looking good for the defensive lines
Production issues are a real head-scratcher: US factories make only 1mil artillery shells yearly but Ukraine needs 4x more. The same goes for air-defense stuff - they want thousands of Patriots but Americans can build just 550 per year (and thats if they work non-stop)
During last years counter-attack Ukraine had lots of fancy western gear but didnt have enough people to use it right. Most soldiers knew old Soviet stuff better; the new tech just sat there cause nobody had time to learn it properly
The fix might be simple - focus on defense not attack. Ukraine should build:
- Deep trenches with good cover
- Tank-stopping barriers
- Lots of mines (both types)
- Small drone spots
- Short-range gun positions
A peace deal needs trade-offs from both sides: no NATO for Ukraine‚ some sanctions gone - but also keeping EU dreams alive and getting help with defense. The longer they wait the worse deal theyll get; its just how numbers work