Mon, 04 Jul 22 15:27:25 +0000

Iran's tensions could get hot this summer

This version of the story first appeared in the Middle East newsletter, while CNN. The largest three-weekly article in the region. story. Sign up here

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (CNN)The United States and Iran are indirect and then further escalated. Negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, which may be heading for the summer, ended without any progress last week.

The European Union-mediated talks in Doha, Qatar were the latest hopes for both sides to reach an agreement amid heightened tensions over Iran's nuclear program.

The two-day talks aimed to resolve the remaining issues between the United States and Iran. U.S. officials said the negotiationshad "retreated", but Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdrahian said on Saturday that "the road todiplomacy is open." Said to be "positive". ""

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister and Head of Nuclear Negotiations Ali Bergery Kanisaid on Sundaythat the time and place for the next round of negotiations would be finalized. Stated.

However, as discussions ceased, Iran was close toinches in the amount of enriched uranium needed to make a nuclear bomb,, andin collaboration with the United Nations nuclear watchdog. 31} is reduced. Develop an enemy outlook that resorts to military options to thwart nuclear capabilities.

CNN is Washington D. C. We talked withAli Vaez, Iran Project Director of Crisis Group, a think tank in Japan, about what will happen next.

Since the negotiations ended without any progress, what is the likelihood of future escalations and what will happen?

One thing is certain: the dynamics of "no trading, no crisis" are not sustainable. There is a great deal of friction between Iran, the United States, and allies in their respective regions, and there is ample space for intentional or unintentional escalations that can go out of control. All of this could turn the summer of 2022 into something very similar to the summer of 2019. At this time, tensions increased in the form of increased sanctions and attacks oninternational routesand {46. } The infrastructure of the Gulf Arab countrieshas brought Tehran and Washington dangerously close to the conflicts that have been held many times in just a few months.

The only difference now is that ongoing dialogue betweenIran and Saudi Arabiaand between the UAE is likely to shift the competition to Levant. ..

Does the lack of progress in Doha mean that the transaction is dead?

This is not always the case. Failures in this round could turn diplomacy with Iran into a zombie process for some time. Both sides may escalate to each other, hoping that they will return home and eventually the other will flash first. However, as we approach themid-parliamentary elections, the Biden administration's willingness to trade may decline. The problem is that the Democratic Party will lose control of theparliament in November, weakening Iran's interest in dealing with the Lame duck administration, which has lost control of theparliament.

What will happen next?

Iranians may decide to postpone trading until the next US [2024 presidential election] without compromising leverage. However, Iranians have to hold their own presidential election in 2025 and wait for the outcome of the election. At that point, the transaction becomes invalid and the parties have to negotiate a new transaction from the beginning, which can take several years.

Therefore, the option is between the current transaction or the transaction 6 years later, not the current transaction or the transaction 6 months later. And given how close Iran is already to nuclear weapons, the status quo is unsustainable. Sooner or later, Israel could urge the United States to takemilitary action or retreatIran's nuclear program, causing a catastrophic regional fire.

What was the status of the negotiations since March and what triggered the bilateral meeting in Doha?

Over the past few weeks, European Union chief negotiator Enrique Mora has exchanged messages between Tehran and Washington to find a mutually acceptable formula. However, long-distance diplomacy is slow and has proven ineffective.

Both sides had an incentive to return to the negotiating table due to growing concerns about Iran's nuclear program in the West and Israel, and Iran's deteriorating economic conditions under sanctions. The EU has concluded that it is much more efficient to facilitate close negotiations with both parties in the same city rather than on two different continents.

The fact that the latest negotiations took place in the country of the Persian Gulf is important.

This is important for two reasons. The first shows how the situation in the region has changed compared to when the nuclear deal was closed in 2015. Second, with the exception of Oman, the other Gulf countries were less enthusiastic. They mainly saw it as enriching and empowering local rivals. Most Gulf countries now understand the value of escalating transactions, as they have now overcome the Trump administration's "maximum pressure" policy on Iran and placed them on the line of fire between Iran and the United States.

What geopolitical factors have changed since the last indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran in March?

Of course, the war in Ukraineobscured everythingon the one hand, weakening the urgency of nuclear negotiations and distracting Western policymakers. .. On the other hand, it made Iran's return to the energy market more valuable to the West.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Digest

US may have Israeli shootings responsible for Shireen Abu Akleh's death But the bullet investigation is not definitive

The bullet investigation that killed Al Jazeera spokesman Abu Acre "is because of the state of the bullet. Although a definitive conclusion on origin"could not be reached, a U.S. security coordinator said her death was likely due to a shooting from the [Israel Defense Force] position. "We conclude," Ned Price, a spokesperson for the State Department, said in a statement on Monday. "There is no reason to believe this is intentional, but rather the result of a tragic situation during an IDF-led military operation against the Islamic Jihad faction in Palestine," said the security coordinator.

Hezbollah in Lebanon refers to a drone sent to an Israeli gas rig in conflict waters

Hezbollah has three unarmed drones on Saturday The Mediterranean, which has been disputed between Lebanon and Israel, has claimed responsibility for launching into the region's oil fields, said in a statement to CNN. Israeli forces said Saturday that the drone had been shot down, fired from Lebanon and flew in the direction of the Kalish gas field.

Ukraine officials say Ukraine has appealed to "detain" Russian-flagged ships carrying grain to Turkey

Ukraine has told Turkish authorities Ukraine Vasily Bodner, Ukraine's ambassador to Turkey, who requested the detention of a Russian-flagged ship carrying the language, told CNN on Saturday.

Notable points

Three women brutally killed in three countries in the Middle East, from Egypt to JordanIt's only a few days away. CNN's Becky Anderson is investigating the prevalence of gender-based violence in the Arab world and the social and shortcomings that impede the proper protection of women.

See the full report here.

79%

Turkey's annual inflation rate was 78.62, the highest in 24 years in June due to the effects of the Ukrainian War. Soared to%. Soaring commodity prices and slipping lira since the crisis in December.

Area area

United Arab Emiratesuses 11 billion plastic bags each yearThis Equivalent to 1,182 bags per person per year, well above the world average of 307 bags per person per year.

10 million countries are now trying to change that. This weekend, Dubai, a business and entertainment hub, has tightened its rules on the use of plastic bags by introducing a tariff of 25 Phils ($ 0.07) on all disposable bags.

The UAE, preparing to host theCOP28 Climate Summitin 2023, aims to end the use of disposable bags by 2024.

Only a month after Abu Dhabi, the capital of the country where the Dubai movement is coming, introduced a ban on all disposable plastic bags, it was banned for the first time in the Middle East. Unlike Dubai, Abu Dhabi did not give incentives to the public through tariffs, but banned them altogether.

The Emirate has given retailers a four-month grace period to comply with the rules.

"That's a good thing, Europe and the United States are doing the same thing," Faiz, an employee of a Dubai supermarket, told CNN.

Dubai tariffs apply to all disposable bags with a thickness of 57 micrometers or less.

Posted by GhaziNasser