Sat, 25 Jun 22 11:16:03 +0000

What is the future of weather forecasts?

(CNN)My name is Harry Enten. I'm addicted to the weather forecast.

As a teenager, I went to Penn State University Meteorological Camp, where I visited the National Weather Service and AccuWeather, and dive into the arts and sciences of weather forecasting for a week. Around the same time, I was covered in Snow Measurement inNew York DailyNews.

I didn't like calculus, so I couldn't get into meteorology. But my addiction to weather forecasts, especially snow, remains. (There's a reason not to move to Washington, D.C., because the average seasonal snowfall is less than 14 inches)

But I'm a big payer Not. Daily attention to climate change.

And, as we learned in the latest episode of the podcast,Margin of Error, it is surprisingly common for such breaks between weather and climate change.

2018 Pew Research Center surveygives people the most important topics covered in local news broadcasts I asked. Far-flung weather was number one at 70%.

By comparison, in the 2019Washington Post poll, 10% said they often talk to friends about global warming.

This split makes sense. But as we're discussing in the podcast, we can't separate them as much as we used to.

Weather forecasts are an urgent concern for almost everyone. If it's forecast to rain late today, I'll bring an umbrella. Climate changerefers to long-term changes

Still, there are many misconceptions about weather forecasts that so many people are interested in.

Covers much of what's included in podcast predictions (and therefore adjust), but one of the major misunderstandings is how accurate they are. People like to offend meteorologists who make the mistake, but after all, the predictions are better than they ever were. It is more accurate than

As John Homenuk of New York Metro Weather told me, "I have an amazing heart working on creating these meteorological models. They are in great detail. I am an individual. I will continue to mention that we can predict thunderstorms .. (An) The incredible technology boom has helped us a lot. "

Easy to know that the forecast has improved. One way is to look at the hurricanes to see how these stormy nautical miles have reduced their error rates. The prediction error ratefor

has dropped from about 70% (for a 24-hour forecast) to about 90% (for a 72-hour forecast) since 1970. From a point of view, the average error of the 72-hour forecast was about 450 miles apart in 1970. Today it is about 50 miles away.

Increased accuracy has saved countless lives.

In other words, your local meteorologist has really improved thanks to a better understanding of weather models and patterns.

However, you probably won't achieve full accuracy.

The big problem is thebutterfly effectAs Homenuk pointed out to me, "Big storms are still very complicated and very difficult to understand. In the thunderstorm community. The joke is that farmers can sneeze in Oklahoma and change the overall setting. "

Another potential problem is climate change. Climate and weather are different, but the former can affect short-term prediction accuracy.

I spoke with Adity Sheshadori, Principal Investigator for the 2021study at Stanford University. Researchers have done some modeling, focusing on how different warming patterns affect the accuracy of weather forecasts in this and other parts of the world.

They found a "pretty systematic relationship" between changes in temperature and distances that could accurately predict weather. Sheshadri said that "when the earth is very cool" we can make more accurate long range weather forecasts. As the Earth warms, "it's the other way around, and this window of accurate weather forecasts gets narrower."

According to a Stanford University study, for every 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) rise, one day of accurate precipitation predictions is lost.

It may not seem like much, but according to US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data, the Earth has been 0.08 degrees Celsius (0.14 degrees Fahrenheit) every 10 years since 1880. It's warming up. The earth is now about 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than it was then. The World Meteorological Organization has warned thatglobal temperatureswill continue to rise over the next few years.

The conclusion is as follows. Those who like weather forecasts but don't discuss climate change need to understand the implications of climate change. Due to climate change, weather forecasts may not be very accurate.