A recent survey conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals that Tim Walz, the Democratic vice presidential candidate and current governor of Minnesota, enjoys higher favorability ratings among voters compared to his Republican counterpart, JD Vance, the junior senator from Ohio.
The poll, conducted from September 12-16, 2024, provides insights into voter perceptions as both candidates prepare for the upcoming vice presidential debate. This event, a regular feature of U.S. presidential elections since 1976, will offer a significant platform for both Walz and Vance to address a national audience.
According to the survey results, approximately half of registered voters view Vance unfavorably, an increase from about 40% in late July 2024. In contrast, Walz maintains a more positive image, with about 40% of voters expressing a favorable opinion of him. This disparity extends to their respective party bases, with 70% of Democratic voters viewing Walz positively compared to 60% of Republican voters for Vance.
Interestingly, Walz demonstrates stronger appeal across gender lines, a notable factor given the historical gender gap in U.S. voting patterns since the 1980s. About 40% of both male and female voters view Walz favorably, while Vance's support hovers around 30% for men and 25% for women.
Age demographics also play a role in candidate perception. Walz holds an advantage among voters over 60, with half viewing him favorably compared to 30% for Vance. This age group has historically been a crucial voting bloc in U.S. elections.
However, Walz faces challenges in some key Democratic constituencies. While about 75% of Black adults view Vice President Kamala Harris favorably, only about half express the same sentiment for Walz. This disparity is significant, given the historical importance of Black voters to the Democratic Party.
It's worth noting that both vice presidential candidates currently have lower profiles than their running mates, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. This leaves room for potential shifts in public opinion as the campaign progresses and their national recognition increases.
The survey, conducted using NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, included 1,771 registered voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This methodology, designed to be representative of the U.S. population, provides a snapshot of current voter sentiments.
As the campaign season intensifies, these favorability ratings may fluctuate, particularly in response to major events like the upcoming debate. The dynamic nature of political campaigns, coupled with the potential for rapid shifts in voter opinions, suggests that both Walz and Vance have opportunities to improve their standing among the electorate.
"These early favorability ratings provide valuable insights, but it's important to remember that voter perceptions can change quickly, especially for less familiar candidates like Walz and Vance. The upcoming debate will be a crucial moment for both to make their case to the American people."
As voting begins in more states, the challenge for both tickets becomes increasingly apparent. The ability of vice presidential candidates to influence voter perceptions of the overall ticket may play a significant role in the coming weeks, particularly in swing states like Ohio, where Vance hails from, and traditionally Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota, Walz's home turf.