In this forward-looking scenario six years ahead the Russia-Ukraine war has morphed into something different - a low-intensity conflict thats managed through various agreements (but without proper ending in sight)
By early 2030s‚ the situation looks quite familiar to what happened after russias first moves in ukraine about 16 years ago: both sides dont have power to win‚ but wont give up. Vladimir Putin still holds roughly one-fifth of Ukrainian lands that were taken since the beginning of this whole mess
The war management now works through several key-points:
- No-fire zones near nuclear sites
- Protected civilian areas
- Safe routes for help delivery
- Prisoner swap deals
- Military-to-military communications
Western help for ukraine has gotten smaller - U.S is busy looking east at China; while Europe deals with its own pro-russian political issues. North Korea keeps sending stuff to russia but its not enough to change anything big
Volodymyr Zelenskyyʼs Ukraine (even with lost lands) has grown stronger in many ways - its got battle-tested army; working defense industry‚ and solid non-russian identity. The country sees itself as real european power now
Russia of 2030 looks pretty beat-up: sanctions hit hard; oil prices are down; and theres not enough young men to fight (due to demographic problems). The once-mighty country now depends less on China - which makes U.S happy as it tries to split this partnership
The global picture isnt great though - small countries see that big ones can just take what they want; the UN doesnt work right anymore; and everyone thinks they need more guns or maybe even nukes. Climate problems migration issues and other world-wide tasks get harder to fix
Wild things could still change everything: Putin might die; trump could come back and force some deal; taiwan crisis might pull attention away; or russia might just break agreements when it sees fit