As the conflict in Ukraine approaches its third year, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to present a comprehensive victory plan to the White House on September 26, 2024. This strategic blueprint aims to address the urgent need for expedited support from Western allies, particularly the United States.
The plan, kept confidential until its formal presentation to President Joe Biden, encompasses several critical elements. These include Ukraine's aspiration for NATO membership and the request for permission to utilize long-range weaponry against targets within Russian territory. These proposals push the boundaries of what some of Ukraine's supporters have previously considered acceptable.
Andrii Yermak, Zelenskyy's chief of staff, emphasized the importance of security guarantees through NATO membership. This has been a primary demand from Kyiv and a major point of contention for Moscow. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, established in 1949 as a collective defense alliance, has been cautious about Ukraine's membership due to the ongoing conflict.
The urgency of the plan is underscored by the challenging situation on the eastern front. Ukrainian forces are engaged in grueling battles against a numerically superior Russian military, particularly in the Donetsk region. The mining town of Vuhledar, a crucial logistics point, is currently under intense pressure.
One Ukrainian soldier, identified as Kyanin, expressed hope for substantial military aid: "We need not just a few tanks, but thousands of weapons and ammunition." This sentiment reflects the scale of support Ukraine believes is necessary to turn the tide of the conflict.
The victory plan is Kyiv's response to mounting pressure for a ceasefire. However, Ukrainian officials argue that any premature agreement would be detrimental to the country's future. They insist that a ceasefire should only be considered if Russia's capacity for future aggression is significantly diminished.
"It will lead to a freezing of the conflict, nothing more: Occupied territories are considered occupied. Sanctions against Russia remain. The intensity of war drops significantly but it continues."
Time is a critical factor in this strategy. Military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko warns that without increased support, Ukraine could lose substantial territory by the end of the year. Moreover, prolonging the conflict may allow Russia to further develop its weapons industry, which has shown remarkable growth over the past year.
The plan also seeks to address the issue of Russian aerial glide bombs, which have become increasingly powerful. These weapons, now weighing up to 3,000 pounds, pose a significant threat to Ukrainian forces. Long-range Western weapons are seen as the most effective countermeasure against these bombs.
In his final address to the U.N. General Assembly on September 24, 2024, President Biden urged continued support for Ukraine, stating, "We cannot grow weary. We cannot look away." This call for sustained assistance aligns with the objectives of Zelenskyy's victory plan.
As Ukraine approaches the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, the outcome of this high-stakes diplomatic effort could significantly influence the future course of the conflict. The success of Zelenskyy's plan may depend on the willingness of Western allies to act swiftly and decisively in support of Ukraine's strategic objectives.