By Neil Evans
December 11, 2022 — 6.00pm
Track likely soft 5 and rail out 3.5m from 500m to 300m into a cutaway.
RACE 1 - 1.10PM: SPANLINE ORANGE & BATHURST COUNTRY BOOSTED MAIDEN HANDICAP (1000m)
We open with the maiden sprinters on a somewhat sight-unseen track that hasn’t been in use for several months. With rain forecast on the day, the good 4 may quickly drop back to around soft 6 range, and the surface pressure will be on. Keen on emerging mare 3. Dupenny here second-up after she was scratched from Friday’s Dubbo meeting to be saved for this. Tracked the speed before missing by a whisker first-up at Narromine, and with that extra fitness the further 200m is ideal for one of the best strike-rate stables in country NSW.
Leading Warwick Farm trainer Bjorn Baker is likely to have a large say in how Monday’s meeting at Orange pans out.Credit:Getty Images
Dangers: No question well-bred four-year-old 1. Xtra Intent is the clear threat resuming for only his second start off an 11-month break and dominant trial win. Gap to the rest headed by Zoustar three-year-old 2. Hobbsy, who has trialled OK and preferred here to Canberra on Sunday, and stablemate to the top selection 10.Toongi Bound second-up with a 4kg weight drop.
How to play it: Dupenny to win and quinella 1 and 3.
Odds and Evens: Odds.
RACE 2 - 1.45PM: PIRTEK ORANGE COUNTRY BOOSTED BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP (1000m)
Again over the flying five furlongs augurs well for another lightly raced Brett Thompson-trained runner, 4. Ithicus, who maps to make it two wins from his last three in the first prep. Cruised home from the front at Narromine a month back before sitting behind the speed and failing to run down the winner at Mudgee. Suspect he’ll take quick control back to this trip, and prove very hard to catch.
Dangers: Keep safe consistent five-year-old 5. Foxstorm who has been given four weeks since sweeping home from the back to win a CL1, and hasn’t been out of a place in his last four, while 1. Castlebar Road, resuming from the inside barrier, and 3. Hiraishin who resumes with a 3kg weight claim go in exotics plays.
How to play it: Ithicus to win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
RACE 3 - 2.20PM: EPIROC MAIDEN PLATE (1400m)
Tougher affair, although mapping to get cover just off the speed is the right recipe for lightly raced metropolitan filly 12. Little Baia who peaks third-up over more ground. Has worked home fairly in two runs to start her career, but she can settle closer here over this distance, with a leading country jockey back aboard.
Dangers: Improving filly 11. Edith’s Joy is over the odds after working home well enough into a place in her last two, while 4. Dezi Emperor fourth-up, stablemate to the top selection 5. Radiant Knight who draws the fence and 6.Rise To It, drawn out second-up and also preferred here to Sunday’s Canberra meeting, are all capable of running into the minor end of the money.
How to play it: Little Baia to win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
RACE 4 - 2.55PM: LITTLES POWER CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1400m)
Very keen here on Winning Rupert filly 7. Semana who draws to get a soft run in what is a weak race. Ploughed through heavy ground late to win on debut before finishing strongly from midfield in a much deeper provincial class 1. Draws to get a charmed run over a furlong further for a leading city stable, and almost has this at her mercy, with a couple of others running at Canberra on Sunday instead.
Dangers: Honest five-year-old 3. Shubick is fit, continues to build a tidy record and draws to be in the finish. Big gap to the rest.
How to play it: Semana to win.
Odds and Evens: Odds.
RACE 5 - 3.30PM: CENTRAL WEST POWER CONSTRUCTIONS BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP (2100m)
A modest battle of tactics here over the longer journey, and there are plenty of chances. No better value than tough six-year-old 7. For Da Boys who never shirks the task, and has been placed in four of his last five. Worked home fairly through heavy going in a deeper race at Scone two back before chasing hard behind the winner in weaker grade 16 days ago. Drops significantly in weight, with a much stronger rider back on, and he can settle off the speed before charging over the top late.
Dangers: Plenty of them, headed by 2. Adelaide’s Diamond who has consistently found the line OK this prep in marginally better races. Including metro four-year-old 4. Sandastan who has been up for a long time, but finds his easiest race in some time while 3. Thieve, who won a deeper provincial BM58 three starts back but draws wide, and honest seven-year-old 5. Yak, who likes to roll forward, are worthy exotic runners.
How to play it: For Da Boys each-way.
Odds and Evens: Split.
RACE 6 - 4.10PM: THE ORIANA BENCHMARK 58 HANDICAP- HEAT OF THE RISING STAR (1280m)
Same grade now for the sprinters in a heat of the Rising Star, and confident still-improving five-year-old 1. Vital Verse can go back-to-back in a similar race. Had been working towards a win before a dominant display from barrier to box at Narromine, and the hike in weight has been offset with the booking of a 3kg-claiming junior rider. May look for a spot behind the speed this time from a wider draw.
Dangers: Naturally, consistent metro-based filly 6. Covalent will be hard to stop from a low draw and 2kg claim, while wider in the market keep safe 4. Down To Earth dropping in class from a six week freshen-up, and 5. Money Not My God deep into the prep, also with a 2kg weight allowance.
How to play it: Vital Verse to win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
RACE 7 - 4.50PM: CONTEMPORARY HOMES BENCHMARK 74 HANDICAP (1400m)
Deepest and best race of the program is saved for last, and all aboard tough seven-year-old 11. Joey’s Chance at the value. Hasn’t won for a while, but strong closing efforts in his last two at the provincials have him over the odds in this company. Can settle a bit closer to the speed from a nice draw, and a senior country rider being booked is a big plus.
Dangers: Canberra five-year-old 4. Propose a Toast is the big threat, dropping back from superior form lines. Perennial frontrunner who should be suited around this tighter circuit, and the rise in weight more than offset by the inside barrier. Underrated seven-year-old 5. Lockdown Gamble is another one who will relish a clear drop in quality fourth-up after dropping out in a Saturday Highway at Kembla. 3. Larynx can mix his runs, but is capable of working into the finish.
How to play it: Joey’s Chance to win.
Odds and Evens: Split.
Best bets:
Race 2 No.4 ITHICUS
Race 4 No.7 SEMANA
Best value:
Race 7 No.11 JOEY’S CHANCE
Supplied by Racing NSW
Full form and race replays available at racingnsw.com.au.
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