Far-Right AfD Poised for Potential Breakthrough in Eastern German Elections
Upcoming state elections in eastern Germany spark concerns as the far-right AfD party gains momentum. Potential shifts in political landscape raise questions about democratic norms and minority rights.
As the summer of 2024 draws to a close, Germany finds itself on edge, anticipating crucial state elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg. These eastern German states, once part of the former German Democratic Republic, are poised for potential political upheaval that could challenge long-standing democratic norms.
On September 1, 2024, voters in Saxony and Thuringia will head to the polls, followed by Brandenburg on September 22. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is projected to make significant gains, potentially becoming the strongest party in Saxony and Thuringia with around 30% of the vote.
The AfD's rise has been particularly pronounced in eastern Germany since 2014, where it has functioned as an opposition force. Founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party, the AfD has since shifted further right, adopting more radical positions on issues such as immigration and national identity.
The potential success of the AfD in these elections has raised concerns about the future of the "firewall" against far-right parties, a practice that has been central to German politics since World War II. This principle has traditionally seen mainstream parties refuse to cooperate with extreme-right groups.
However, cracks in this resolve are beginning to show. The newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has expressed openness to working with the AfD, while the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) finds itself aligned with the AfD on certain issues, particularly immigration.
Several scenarios could unfold post-election:
- An anti-AfD coalition of mainstream parties
- The AfD leading a state government
- The AfD as a junior coalition partner
- An AfD minority government
Each of these outcomes would have significant implications for governance and society in these states and potentially for Germany as a whole.
Of particular concern are the potential changes to state institutions under AfD influence. Critics worry about the party's impact on law enforcement, the judiciary, and social policies. Björn Höcke, the controversial AfD leader in Thuringia, has proposed "remigrating" German citizens with foreign backgrounds and restructuring state-run media.
"We will definitely make Thuringia as unattractive as possible for social migration. We will make it clear that the Thuringia department of the International Welfare Office Germany is closed."
These statements have alarmed minority groups and civil society organizations. Jasmin Gräwel of Christopher Street Day Leipzig, an LGBTQ+ rights group, expressed concerns about potential funding cuts and increased vulnerability for marginalized communities.
Germany's federal system grants significant powers to state governments, making the outcome of these elections particularly consequential. The AfD's potential influence over key ministries, such as the Interior and Justice departments, could lead to shifts in law enforcement priorities and judicial appointments.
As election day approaches, Germany faces a critical juncture. The results will not only shape the political landscape of these eastern states but may also have far-reaching implications for the country's democratic traditions and commitment to protecting minority rights.
