Netanyahu's Likud Gains Ground in Latest Israeli Poll, Coalition Still Trails

A recent opinion poll conducted by the Ma'ariv daily indicates a gradual recovery for Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, nearly a year after the devastating October 7 attacks. The survey, released on September 13, 2024, shows Likud potentially securing 24 seats in the Knesset if elections were held now, marking its highest score since the Hamas incursion.

Despite this uptick, Netanyahu's right-wing coalition, comprising nationalist-religious and ultra-Orthodox parties, would fall short of a majority with 53 seats in the 120-seat parliament. The main opposition bloc leads with 58 seats, according to the poll.

The survey reveals a significant shift in Likud's standing since the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 attacks, which saw Hamas militants infiltrate Israel, resulting in 1,200 casualties and over 250 hostages taken. Earlier in the conflict, polls consistently showed Likud gaining no more than 16-18 seats.

Netanyahu's personal standing as Prime Minister has also seen improvement. The poll indicates he is now favored over most alternative candidates, with the exception of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is currently not active in politics.

The current government, formed almost two years ago, has managed to maintain cohesion despite internal tensions. Netanyahu has faced disagreements with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant from his own party, as well as with hardline ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

While Likud's support has grown, the nationalist religious parties led by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have not seen a corresponding increase in popularity. This dynamic may discourage these parties from leaving the coalition, as they could potentially lose seats in a new election.

The next scheduled election is not due until 2026, giving the current government time to navigate ongoing challenges, including the aftermath of the hostage crisis and regular protests demanding action to bring home those still held in Gaza.

"Likud winning 24 seats, against 32 at present, its highest score in the Ma'ariv poll since Oct. 7. It put the National Unity Party led by centrist former general Benny Gantz on 21."

This latest poll underscores the complex and evolving political landscape in Israel, as the country continues to grapple with security concerns and internal divisions in the wake of one of its most challenging periods in recent history.