Political betting gains steam after court allows U.S. election wagers
Political betting markets are growing after a court ruling allowed U.S. election wagers. These platforms‚ like Kalshi and Polymarket‚ offer alternative election forecasts to traditional polls‚ attracting tech and finance circles despite regulatory challenges
Scott Owens‚ a watch-repair enthusiast from Madison Wisconsin‚ recently put $100 on various election outcomes using Kalshis prediction market. This came after a federal court gave the green light for such wagers about two weeks ago (its worth noting that the exact date is 10/5/24)
Prediction markets are online platforms where people buy stakes in future events‚ not just elections but also things like hurricanes or celebrity engagements. The price of these stakes fluctuates based on how likely traders think the outcome is
Kalshis CEO‚ Tarek Mansour‚ says user numbers have been doubling daily since the court ruling. Meanwhile‚ Polymarket – a rival platform – has seen about $2 billion in crypto bets on the next president
These markets are getting more attention in tech and finance circles: some people use them alongside traditional polls. For instance‚ a San Francisco mayoral candidate staffer recently mentioned both types of data in the same breath
However‚ these markets arent without critics. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has tried to block election betting‚ arguing its “contrary to the public interest“. Theres also worry about potential manipulation
We live in a time where our democracy is fragile
Despite concerns‚ some high-profile figures are promoting prediction markets. Donald Trump and Elon Musk have both shared favorable odds from these platforms on social media
Not everyone is convinced though. At a Las Vegas casino‚ some sports bettors expressed hesitation about wagering on politics. Eric‚ a regular football bettor said‚ “If your candidate loses you can just say it was rigged“
Interestingly‚ Scott Owens story took an unexpected turn. After placing his bets‚ he was offered a job at Kalshi – moving from user to employee in a matter of days. “It feels really good that because of this prediction market somebody saw that I had value‚“ he said
As the election approaches (remember‚ its 11/5/24)‚ the debate over prediction markets role in forecasting political outcomes is likely to intensify
