In a significant development, China has extended its support to Myanmar's military-led government, offering technical assistance for conducting a census and subsequent election. This move, reported on August 15, 2024, underscores Beijing's backing of the junta, which has been grappling with an intensifying armed rebellion and territorial losses.
Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister, met with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyitaw on August 14, 2024. The discussions centered around an "all-inclusive election" and China's commitment to provide necessary technological aid for the census-taking process and election preparations.
This development comes amidst widespread skepticism about the proposed election, which many international observers consider a sham. The military regime extended emergency rule for another six months in July 2024, citing the need for more time to compile census data for voter lists. Min Aung Hlaing has previously indicated that the election would take place in 2025.
The credibility of the proposed election is severely compromised, with dozens of political parties, including the popular National League for Democracy (NLD), being disbanded for not registering to participate. The NLD, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, won a landslide victory in the 2015 general election before being ousted by the military in August 2021.
China's official stance, as conveyed by Wang Yi, emphasizes non-interference in Myanmar's internal affairs and respect for the country's political traditions. However, this position has been met with skepticism from international observers who view China's support as tacit approval of the junta's actions.
"China's policy of friendship with Myanmar is oriented towards the entire Myanmar people. China opposes chaos and war in Myanmar, interference by external forces in Myanmar's internal affairs, as well as any attempts to drive a wedge between China and Myanmar, and smear China."
The military regime in Myanmar faces unprecedented pressure three years after seizing power. An armed rebellion against its rule has gained significant momentum, coupled with a faltering economy. Myanmar's economy is one of the least developed in Southeast Asia, despite the country's rich natural resources including oil, gas, and precious stones.
The China-Myanmar border region has witnessed intense fighting since last year, with the junta suffering a series of defeats. Notably, Lashio in northern Shan state, one of the 14 regional military commands, fell to rebel forces. In October 2023, a rebel alliance launched Operation 1027 near the Chinese border, inflicting substantial losses on the junta. Although a temporary ceasefire was brokered by Beijing, fighting resumed in June 2024 after its collapse.
Myanmar, with a population of about 54 million people and over 100 ethnic groups, has been under various forms of military rule since 1962. The country's complex political landscape is further complicated by its strategic location, sharing borders with five countries including China, its largest trading partner and a major investor.
As the situation in Myanmar continues to evolve, Wang Yi is scheduled to attend a regional foreign ministers' meeting in Thailand on August 16, 2024. This gathering is likely to address the ongoing crisis in Myanmar and its implications for regional stability.