In response to China's ongoing demographic challenges, the National Health Commission (NHC) has announced a new focus on promoting marriage and childbirth at "appropriate ages." This initiative comes as the world's most populous nation grapples with a declining birth rate and shrinking population for the second consecutive year as of 2023.
Yu Xuejun, deputy head of the NHC, outlined the commission's strategy to foster a "new culture of marriage and childbearing." The plan includes advocating for shared parenting responsibilities and guiding young people towards positive perspectives on family life. These efforts aim to address the complex factors contributing to China's demographic decline, including high childcare costs, career priorities, and persistent gender discrimination.
China's current demographic situation is partly a result of its historical one-child policy, implemented from 1979 to 2015. This policy, coupled with rapid economic development, has led to significant changes in family planning attitudes. The legal marriage age in China remains 22 for men and 20 for women, but the average age of first marriage has increased to 28.67 years as of 2020.
The demographic challenges facing China are substantial:
- Record low births: In 2022, China recorded only 9.56 million births, the lowest in modern history.
- Aging population: Over 14% of China's population was aged 65 and above in 2021.
- Shrinking workforce: The working-age population (15-59) has been declining since 2012.
- Gender imbalance: As of 2021, there were 105.07 males for every 100 females.
These trends have significant implications for China's economy and society. The labor force is expected to shrink by approximately 35 million over the next five years, potentially impacting economic growth and innovation.
To counter these trends, the Chinese government has introduced various measures, including the three-child policy in 2021. However, many couples remain hesitant to have children due to the high costs associated with raising a family. In Chinese cities, the estimated cost of raising a child to age 18 is around $75,000, with education expenses potentially consuming up to 50% of a family's income.
Yu emphasized that China's changing demographics are a natural outcome of economic and social development. However, he stressed the need for persistent efforts from all localities to promote sustainable demographic development.
"We will focus more efforts on advocating marriage and childbirth at appropriate ages, and call for shared parenting responsibilities to guide young people towards positive perspectives on marriage, childbirth and family."
As China navigates these demographic challenges, the government's approach to family planning continues to evolve. The success of these new initiatives will likely depend on addressing the underlying economic and social factors influencing family planning decisions in modern Chinese society.