SITUATION REPORT – HORN OF AFRICA No. 486, 9 October 2023

Situation in Israel – Gaza (per 9 October)

• The Chairperson of the Commission of the African Union issued a statement on the conflict that erupted between Israel and Hamas, calling on both parties to negotiate. 
• The Chairperson stated that denial of the rights of the Palestinian people for an independent and sovereign state is the main cause of the Israel-Palestinian tensions. 
• The outbreak of the Israel war with Hamas will impact the ongoing peace efforts in Sudan, as active parties such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are expected to shift their focus.
• The situation also impacts refugees from Eritrea residing in Israel. Pro-democracy Eritreans in Tel Aviv helped to collect and distribute goods to those evacuated, identifying as N’Hamedu and wearing blue t-shirts to identify themselves.

Situation in Sudan (per 9 October)

• On Friday, Rapid Support Forces (RSF) took over the Al-Ailafoon suburb, which is located 30 km east of Khartoum. Heavy fighting with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) over the suburb started on Thursday.
• RSF has displaced thousands of inhabitants and looted their homes in Al-Ailafoon. Many Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) were also sheltering in Al-Ailafoon. 
• RSF is expanding their presence in Al Jazira state in Central Sudan by establishing military outposts in Al-Bashaqra, Wad Rawah, and Al-Aidij. The region is very suitable for agriculture and houses many IDPs. 
• At least 11 people were killed in the Karari neighbourhood of Omdurman by heavy shelling on Thursday. 
• 9,000 people have been killed so far since the conflict in Sudan broke out in April, states the The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). It mentions that the estimate is conservative. 
• The increasing involvement of other armed groups in Sudan is entrenching the conflict, ACLED warns. 
• The Sudanese Ministry of Health reported 1,265 people had been killed since the start of the conflict. 
• Médecins Sans Frontières reported that one of their clearly-marked vehicles came under fire between Wad Madani and Khartoum, between RSF and SAF checkpoints. MSF employees escaped injury. 
• Bellingcat investigated videos which are rumoured to show Ukrainian special forces operating in Sudan. Bellingcat was able to geo-locate a video to a position close to Omdurman, Sudan, but was not able to confirm the nationality of the armed men in the video.
• Humanitarian aid to Darfur, Kordofan and White Nile states was delayed for the fourth week in a row due to insecurity, reported UN OCHA.
• Only 22% of NGO requests and 23% of UN requests for visas to Sudan have been processed.

Situation in Ethiopia (per 9 October)

• USAID announced it will resume food aid to refugees in Ethiopia after suspending it, pending an investigation on widespread aid diversion four months ago. 
• Aid to Ethiopians remains suspended.
• The task of  warehousing and distributing food was handed from the Ethiopian government to humanitarian groups, USAID said. 
• A Prosperity Party meeting, which was held until last Wednesday, ended without a statement. Sources indicate the 10-day meeting was filled with quarrels. 
• Ethiopia has a eurobond of $33 million which is due in December, which increases the likelihood that Ethiopia will default as there is no progress with the IMF or G20, Bloomberg states.
• Bombings took place in the Amhara capital of Bahir Dar in the last days. Oromia Special Forces are also involved in the fighting in Amhara.

Situation in Tigray (per 9 October)

• The Tigray Interim Government is calling on people to report to military service and to be ready for defence of the regional territory.
• Three Orthodox bishops in Tigray denounce the non-renewal of the mandate for the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia (ICHREE), warning that the possibility of justice for crimes committed in Tigray are now very limited.
• The bishops state that people continue to die in Tigray due to lack of medical care and hunger, ongoing presence of Eritrean forces, and continuous targeting of Tigrayans in Amharan-occupied western Tigray. 
• A letter by the Chair of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) Debretsion Gebremichael of 1 October requested the UN Human Rights Council to extend the ICHREE mandate, but it remained unanswered. 

Regional Situation (per 9 October)

International Situation (per 9 October)

• A pro-Eritrean government group referring to the ‘Fourth Front’ or 4G has announced an action instructed from a military campaign by the Eritrean regime. The action is planned in the Netherlands (The Hague) on 16 October to “take revenge and be compensated for our disrupted festivals.” 
• Eritrean refugees warn of the military character of the action and call on authorities to stop it. 
• The fourth front (4G) is referred to by the Eritrean Ministry of Information as the “pride of the country”. 
• UN member states in the Human Rights Council will vote this week on the proposed resolution to create an independent mechanism to ensure that atrocity crimes in Sudan are investigated, evidence is conserved and to make recommendations on accountability. 
• Amhara diaspora protested in front of the European Parliament in Brussels on Friday. Protesters called on the European Union to suspend the newly announced EUR 650 million aid package to Ethiopia.

Links of interest

Hamas and Israel at war: what we know on day 3
African Union Statement on X
RSF takes control of Khartoum state area, displaces residents
Sudan Tribune on X
Sudan: Ethnic Strife Amid Escalating Power Struggles
MSF on X
Sudan Situation Report – OCHA
Examining Videos of Suspected Ukrainian Riflemen in Sudan
Il dolore dei vescovi ortodossi: «Il Tigrai dimenticato da tutti»
USAID to slowly resume food aid to Ethiopia after June suspension over fraud
Ethiopia’s Peace Rally All But Gone as Default Possibility Grows
Charlotte Touati on X
Yemane G. Meskel on X
Somali president visits Eritrea amidst military operations against al-Shabaab
Update: Fourth Front ‘Revenge demonstration’ calls on Eritreans across Europe to join Netherlands demonstration
UN Rights Body Should Help Tackle Impunity in Sudan