European diplomats cant sleep well these days as Donald Trump might return to White-house next year. The world looks way different than it was back in his first term – more un-stable and complex
The most worrying thing: four strong countries (Russia China Iran and North-Korea) are getting real close. A high-ranked western official shared his thoughts:
Everything our adversaries are doing right now seems connected
Brett Bruen who used to work at White-house points out that these countries work as one team:
- North-korea sends soldiers to help Russia
- Iran makes trouble for ships in Red Sea
- China buys lots of Iranian oil
The North-korean move to help Russia with troops is quite un-expected. While Moscow needs more people for its war Kim Jong Un takes big risks – his soldiers might run away or show poor skills in battle says John Everard (ex-UK rep in NK)
NATO folks think this could get bigger: if NK helps Russia Ukraine might hit back at NK which could make China step in (due to old agreements) Even though China doesnt want this itʼs still possible
The Iran piece fits well too – they need friends and work with others for different reasons. Mohammad Ali Shabani who knows middle-east stuff says Iran gives military help to Russia and oil safety to China
A Euro-diplomat thinks Trump doesnt see how all pieces connect: if he stops helping Europe and NATO puts taxes on their stuff and lets Putin do what he wants – it will affect Taiwan Indo-pacific and everything else. Its all linked like dominos ready to fall