In a recent broadcast of "The Five" on Fox News, host Jesse Watters made controversial claims about media bias and polling inaccuracies regarding Vice President Kamala Harris. However, a closer examination reveals significant misunderstandings in Watters' interpretation of polling data and party identification statistics.
Watters asserted that the media is "protecting and electing" Democrats, citing what he believed to be skewed poll samples. He claimed that while the country identifies as "R plus-2," polls showing Harris performing well had samples of "R plus-7" or "R plus-8." This statement, however, contains a crucial error.
The host likely meant to say that the polls were "D plus-7" or "D plus-8," suggesting a Democratic bias. His claim about the country's party identification is based on recent Gallup polling data, which indeed showed Republicans with a 2-point advantage in July 2023. However, this simplification overlooks critical nuances in voter identification and registration.
Gallup's polls consistently show that the largest group of Americans identify as independents. As of July 2023, America could be more accurately described as "I plus-11" in Watters' terminology. When considering how independents lean, the country appeared to be "R plus-6" at that time.
It's crucial to note that self-identified partisanship differs from actual voter registration. Data from political firm L2 indicates that Democrats have a substantial edge in registered voters in states with partisan registration, and this advantage is growing in states without it.
"The media's just gonna protect and elect" the Democrats, Watters declared. "They're juicing the polls! I just found out, this country identifies R plus-2. And all the polls we've seen with Kamala doing so well, their samples? R plus-7! R plus-8! R plus-4!"
Watters' misunderstanding extends to how polls function. Statistically accurate polls rarely exactly mirror the demographics of participants. Pollsters use complex methodologies to ensure their samples reflect the likely electorate, including weighting responses to match target population characteristics.
For instance, if a poll surveys 100 Democrats and 80 Republicans, with 90% of each group supporting their party's candidate, the raw results would show a 54% to 46% margin favoring the Democrat. However, if pollsters believe the electorate will be evenly split, they can weight the responses to reflect a 50-50 race.
Reputable pollsters invest significant effort in accurately capturing public opinion. Their methods are designed to provide clients with reliable data, as consistently inaccurate results would quickly lead to a loss of business.
Jesse Watters' approach to reporting, which he has described as championing "disarray on the left," often involves presenting data in ways that support his narrative. This incident serves as a reminder of the importance of critical analysis when interpreting political commentary and polling data.