In the lead-up to the November 5, 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump's campaign strategy has come under scrutiny. Republican activists in key battleground states have reported a noticeable absence of voter outreach efforts, sparking concerns about the effectiveness of the campaign's approach to mobilizing supporters.
The Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) have opted to delegate get-out-the-vote responsibilities to external organizations, most notably America PAC, which is backed by billionaire Elon Musk. This decision has raised eyebrows among party officials and operatives across crucial swing states such as Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.
Nate Wilkowski, field director for the Republican Party in Oakland County, Michigan, stated, "I haven't seen anybody. Nobody's given me a heads-up that they're around in Oakland County areas." This sentiment was echoed by numerous other Republican officials and activists across the battleground states.
The Electoral College system, which determines the outcome of U.S. presidential elections, places significant importance on these swing states. In 2020, Trump lost Michigan by fewer than 160,000 votes, underscoring the critical nature of effective voter mobilization in these areas.
Pete Hoekstra, Michigan's Republican chairman, claimed that America PAC canvassers had begun work in late August. However, reports of their presence remain scarce. The PAC spokesperson stated that canvassers were active in seven competitive states but declined to provide specific numbers.
In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign has adopted a different approach. Her ground operations in the seven battleground states are led by campaign-paid staff, with nearly 2,200 individuals working across more than 328 offices. Additionally, Harris' campaign and supporting super PACs are outspending Trump's side in advertising by a significant margin.
The Trump campaign's political director, James Blair, defended their strategy, stating that they have an estimated 30,000 volunteer captains identifying less likely voters at the local level. He also claimed that close to 2,500 paid canvassers, including those from America PAC, are working across the seven states.
"We very much are focused on low-propensity voters, because it's what makes strategically the most sense in terms of how the president is going to win these states, and these groups' efforts have helped reach them."
Recent complications have arisen for America PAC, with reports of the organization firing its Nevada-based canvassing company, September Group. This development has added to the concerns surrounding the effectiveness of the outsourced voter outreach efforts.
The strategy of delegating campaign duties to outside groups is not without precedent. In 2023, Ron DeSantis' presidential campaign faced challenges when entrusting political outreach to a super PAC. Similarly, Jeb Bush's 2016 campaign attempted a comparable approach, with mixed results.
As the election draws nearer, the effectiveness of Trump's outsourced voter mobilization strategy remains to be seen. With the race expected to hinge on turnout, particularly among infrequent voters, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining the impact of this approach on the campaign's success.