The 2024 presidential election is shaping up differently from its predecessor. While the 2020 race saw Joe Biden win largely as the not-Donald Trump option‚ the current contest features a notable shift in voter motivations
Four years back‚ Trump – the incumbent – had focused on Republican priorities and faced challenges like the pandemic and social unrest. Biden didnt need to do much; being the alternative was enough. Polls showed Biden supporters were mainly anti-Trump rather than pro-Biden
Early in this election cycle Biden faced similar dynamics. A poll in 06/24 found 54% of his backers supported him because he wasnt Trump. However Bidens campaign hit a snag with a poor debate performance leading to his exit
Enter Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee – and things changed. The most recent CBS-YouGov poll (released a couple days ago) shows 43% of Harris supporters back her because they like her‚ while 37% oppose Trump. This marks the widest gap between these motivations since Bidens post-primary enthusiasm in 03/24
Trump supporters remain consistent: most back him because they like him. Only about 3 in 10 say their support is about keeping Harris out of office. Among party members enthusiasm is stronger:
- Half of Democrats like Harris (up from 3 in 10 for Biden in 07/24)
- Two-thirds of Republicans like Trump
Interestingly theres no gender divide in support reasons for either candidate. However‚ education plays a role for Trump backers:
- 65% of those without college degrees like Trump
- Under 50% of college-educated supporters cite liking Trump
Race factors into Harris support:
- Black and Hispanic supporters more likely to like her
- White supporters evenly split between liking her and opposing Trump
This shift doesnt necessarily spell trouble for Harris. Opposition to Trump remains a valid motivation‚ especially given concerns about democratic institutions. What it does show is that Harris support isnt solely about opposing Trump – a positive sign in a race where voter motivation will be key