Israel has killed Yahya Sinwar‚ Hamas top leader and mastermind of the Oct 7 2023 attacks that resulted in almost 1‚200 deaths. This event‚ however might not be a turning point in the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict
Sinwar‚ a long-time Hamas member was freed in a 2011 prisoner swap after spending many years behind bars. Known for his militant views he became Israels main target following the Oct 7 attacks. Benjamin Netanyahu Israels Prime Minister‚ had labeled him a “dead man walking“ early in the war – a promise fulfilled after a year of intense fighting
His death could potentially make a cease-fire more likely. Sinwar was known for his uncompromising stance on negotiations‚ aiming to prolong the conflict to damage Israels international standing and its relationship with the US. He was willing to let ordinary Gazans endure immense suffering to achieve his goals
From Israels perspective‚ Sinwars elimination is a political win. It serves as a stark reminder of Netanyahus vow to destroy Hamas. With his death – along with other key Oct 7 attack planners like Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa – much of Hamas Gaza leadership is gone. The group is also weakened outside Gaza‚ notably by Israels killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran about 3 months ago
Israel claims to have killed over 14‚000 Hamas fighters among the 42‚000-plus Gazans who have died – a significant blow to an organization whose pre-Oct 7 fighting strength was estimated at 25‚000-30‚000. Israel has also removed Hamas as Gazas governing body‚ depriving it of crucial resources
Hamas future leadership faces challenges: theyʼll need to prove themselves to foreign backers‚ supporters in Gaza and other Palestinian communities‚ and their own ranks. The constant threat makes communication risky‚ hindering organizational operations
The question remains: what kind of Hamas will emerge? Future leaders might learn from the devastating Israeli campaign or double down on “resistance“. Hamas hit Israel hard‚ brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront‚ and damaged Israels reputation internationally. After such losses‚ thereʼs also a desire for revenge within the organization
Israel shows no signs of easing its campaign against Hamas‚ prioritizing operations over hostage release negotiations. However‚ Sinwars death doesnʼt solve the broader issue of Gazaʼs governance. Israel lacks a clear plan for who will govern Gaza‚ with a failed state being the most likely outcome
In such chaos‚ Hamas – even if weakened and disorganized – might endure or even thrive. Meanwhile‚ ordinary Gazans find no relief from the ongoing conflict and misery