The possibility of a full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah appears to be increasing, as Israel shifts its focus northward approximately 11 months after the initial outbreak of hostilities. Yoav Gallant, Israel's Defense Minister, has announced a "new phase" in the ongoing war, signaling a potential escalation of tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border.
Israel has recently redeployed a significant military force to its northern frontier, including the 98th Division, which previously participated in intense combat operations in Gaza. This division, comprising thousands of troops, includes specialized units such as paratroopers, artillery, and elite commandos trained for behind-enemy-lines operations.
The heightened military presence coincides with an apparent Israeli attack in Lebanon, resulting in explosions in electronic devices that reportedly caused at least 20 fatalities and thousands of injuries. This sophisticated operation has raised concerns about the imminent possibility of war.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's Prime Minister, has emphasized the government's commitment to ensuring the safe return of displaced residents to northern Israel. This objective has been formally designated as a war goal by Israel's security cabinet, underscoring the nation's determination to alter the status quo in the region.
"The center of gravity is shifting to the north by diverting resources and forces."
Public sentiment in Israel appears to support more robust action against Hezbollah. A recent survey by the Israeli Democracy Institute revealed that 67% of Jewish respondents favored intensifying Israel's response to Hezbollah, with a majority supporting a deep offensive that includes targeting Lebanese infrastructure.
It's worth noting that Hezbollah, founded in 1985 during the Lebanese Civil War, has significantly enhanced its capabilities since the 2006 Lebanon War, which lasted 34 days. The group is estimated to possess around 150,000 rockets and missiles, some potentially equipped with guidance systems that could threaten sensitive targets in Israel.
The current situation along the Israel-Lebanon border, which spans approximately 120 kilometers, remains tense. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), deployed since 1978 to maintain peace in southern Lebanon, continues its mission in the region.
As both sides prepare for potential conflict, the international community watches closely. The outcome of this escalating situation could have far-reaching consequences for the already volatile Middle East region, particularly given Lebanon's ongoing severe economic crisis since 2019 and the complex political landscape shaped by events such as the 2005 Cedar Revolution.