A recent poll suggests that the 2024 election might follow a similar pattern to the one seen four years ago‚ with mail-in votes potentially delaying final results. The Marist Poll released today (10/16/24) indicates that supporters of Kamala Harris are three times more likely to use mail-in or absentee voting compared to Donald Trump backers.
This trend echoes the 2020 election‚ where remote-voting options expanded due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Back then‚ many states experienced slower vote counting processes as they dealt with an increased number of mail-in ballots. The situation led to a gradual shift in results as these votes were tallied‚ often favoring the Democratic candidate.
The poll reveals that over half of Americans plan to cast their ballots before Election Day (11/5/24). Approximately 25% intend to vote by mail‚ with three-quarters of this group supporting Harris. In contrast‚ about a quarter of all voters plan to vote for Trump on Election Day itself.
Lets consider a hypothetical scenario: if none of the mail-in votes for Harris were counted on Election Day‚ Trump could appear to have a 6-point lead initially. However‚ as these votes are tallied‚ the results could swing by nearly 10 points in Harrisʼs favor. Its important to note that this is an extreme example and unlikely to occur exactly as described‚ since many early votes will be counted on election night.
The pattern in slow-to-count votes advantaging the Democrat isnt new and isnt a mystery
Despite the excitement that might be generated by media coverage‚ its crucial to remember two key points:
- There are no actual swings in whoʼs winning or losing once votes are cast; its simply a matter of counting a fixed number of ballots
- The tendency for slow-to-count votes to favor Democrats is a well-established pattern‚ not a sign of any irregularities
As we approach November 5th‚ voters should prepare for a potentially lengthy wait to see the final results. Its advisable to avoid premature celebrations or disappointments based on early returns‚ as the full picture may take some time to emerge