Myanmar's military government has announced plans to conduct a nationwide census in October 2024, setting the stage for a controversial general election in 2025. This development comes amidst ongoing conflict and widespread skepticism about the legitimacy of the proposed electoral process.
Min Aung Hlaing, the junta chief, stated that the census data collected between October 1-15, 2024, would be used to compile voter lists for the upcoming election. He emphasized the importance of accurate data for a "free and fair multi-party democratic general election." However, these claims have been met with widespread skepticism both domestically and internationally.
The proposed election has faced significant criticism, with many labeling it a sham. The international community, particularly Western countries, is unlikely to recognize the outcome. This skepticism stems from the junta's actions following the February 2021 coup, which ousted the democratically elected government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.
Myanmar, a country of approximately 55 million people, has been in turmoil since the coup. The military justified its actions by alleging fraud in the December 2020 election, which Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won by a landslide. However, these claims have been widely disputed, with many viewing them as a pretext for the military's power grab.
The coup sparked widespread protests that evolved into an armed resistance movement. This resistance, combined with established ethnic minority armies, has become the most significant challenge to military rule in decades. According to a May 2024 report by the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, the junta has lost effective control over 86% of the country's territory, which houses 67% of the population.
"The junta has the intention to carry out a sham election and using the excuse of a census, they are collecting information from people which they will use to terrorise them."
The parallel National Unity Government (NUG), comprising former lawmakers and junta opponents, has called on the international community and neighboring countries to denounce both the election and the census process. They express concerns that the collected data could be misused to further oppress the population.
Myanmar's political landscape has been significantly altered since the coup. Dozens of parties have been disbanded for not registering to run, including the NLD. Many NLD politicians, including Aung San Suu Kyi, have been arrested, while others have fled the country.
The international community has been closely monitoring the situation. In August 2024, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi promised technological assistance for the census-taking process, framing it as support for an "all-inclusive election." This move has raised questions about China's role in Myanmar's political future.
As Myanmar prepares for this controversial census and election, the country continues to grapple with long-standing issues. With over 135 officially recognized ethnic groups and a history of conflicts, the path to genuine democratic representation remains challenging. The military's constitutional guarantee of 25% of parliamentary seats further complicates the prospect of true civilian rule.
The coming months will be crucial in determining Myanmar's political trajectory, as the international community, neighboring countries, and the Myanmar people themselves navigate this complex and contentious situation.