The next US administration under Donald Trump might bring major shift in Ukraine policy: Republican party shows less interest in sending military aid‚ and Trump wants peace-deal talks
Western weapon supplies face real-world limits (ammunition stocks getting low) while Ukraine deals with tough internal problems - lack of soldiers and wide-spread corruption. These issues make peace-talks more likely than before
The ground situation will affect any deal terms: Russian forces recent wins mean Ukraine might get less-favorable conditions than last year. However the Kursk area fighting (where Ukrainian troops made some progress) could give them extra bargaining power
Ukraineʼs leaders want solid safety promises - preferably NATO membership; but Moscow wont accept this. Behind closed-doors Kyiv might settle for less: keeping its independence ability to get western weapons and closer ties with EU economies
President Trump could push Kyiv towards negotiations but cant force them to agree. The Ukrainian government led by Volodymyr Zelensky might reject any deal they see as unfair - especially if its made without their input. They could try getting help from EU instead
If talks fail the new US government will need to pick: keep helping Ukraine or let EU handle everything. This choice will shape east-west relations for years