In a significant development that could reshape the dynamics of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, sources have revealed that Russia has established a covert drone production facility in China. This move, occurring approximately 2 years and 7 months after the start of the Ukraine war, raises serious questions about China's claimed neutrality and the potential for international sanctions.
According to intelligence reports, IEMZ Kupol, a subsidiary of the Russian state-owned weapons company Almaz-Antey, has been developing and testing a new drone model called Garpiya-3 (G3) in China with the assistance of local specialists. This collaboration marks a significant escalation in Russia's efforts to bolster its military capabilities, particularly in the realm of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
The G3 drone, an upgraded version of the Garpiya-A1, boasts impressive specifications, including a range of about 2,000 km and a payload capacity of 50 kg. These capabilities place it in a class of advanced military drones, potentially rivaling some of the most sophisticated UAVs currently in use.
The development of military drones has come a long way since their first use in 1849 when Austria employed them against Venice. Today, the global military drone market is expected to reach $26 billion by 2025, highlighting the growing importance of these unmanned systems in modern warfare.
China's involvement in this project is particularly noteworthy, given its position as the world's largest exporter of commercial drones. The country's expertise in drone technology appears to have played a crucial role in the development of the G3 and other models for Russia.
Reports indicate that samples of the G3 and other drone models manufactured in China have been delivered to Kupol in Russia for further testing. This transfer of complete UAVs from China to Russia represents a significant escalation in support, moving beyond the previously reported dual-use components and sub-components.
The scale of Russia's drone ambitions is evident in President Vladimir Putin's recent statement that the military received around 140,000 drones in 2023, with plans to increase this number tenfold in the current year. This massive expansion in drone production aligns with the growing trend in military circles, where the U.S. Air Force now trains more drone pilots than traditional pilots.
"Whoever reacts faster to demands on the battlefield wins."
The involvement of Chinese specialists and the potential establishment of a joint Russian-Chinese drone research and production center in Xinjiang's Kashgar special economic zone further underscore the depth of this collaboration. This proposed facility, with a planned capacity of 800 drones per year, could significantly boost Russia's UAV capabilities.
International reactions to these revelations have been mixed. While some experts, like Fabian Hinz from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, view this as a significant development, others, such as Samuel Bendett from the Center for a New American Security, caution that Beijing would be hesitant to risk international sanctions.
The use of drones in the Ukraine conflict reflects a broader trend in modern warfare. Drones have proven highly effective in various roles, from reconnaissance to direct combat. Some advanced drones can stay airborne for over 24 hours on a single mission, and AI-powered drones are being developed for autonomous combat missions, potentially revolutionizing future conflicts.
As the situation unfolds, the international community will be closely watching for any signs of escalation or potential sanctions against China. The development of this drone production facility not only impacts the ongoing conflict in Ukraine but also has far-reaching implications for global geopolitics and the future of warfare.