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Syria plays both sides: Inside Assad's careful dance in Middle East crisis

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Syrian government stays away from latest Middle-East conflict while trying to keep good relations with everyone. Assadʼs regime focuses on survival rather than joining any side in current regional tensions

In last years Gaza conflict Bashar al-Assad chose an unexpected path - doing nothing. Its a well-known fact that Syria always used anti-Israel rhetoric but never took real action

The long-standing peace on Israel-Syria border tells its own story. Bassam Barabandi a former Syrian diplomat who left his post explains this situation:

The government paints itself as if it is fighting Israel but that has always been a lie; Bashar and his father before him – they have had a silent pact to keep the peace on the border with Israel

Former Syrian diplomat Barabandi

Since Oct-23 Syria kept low-profile; no big pro-Palestinian protests happened in Damascus (which is very unusual for the country)

Assadʼs main focus remains clear – keeping power in his hands. Even though he won civil war around 40% of Syrian territory still isnt under his control; thats why he needs to be extra-careful. One western source mentioned that Israel gave Syria clear warning: any hostile moves would lead to regime destruction

Here are key reasons why Syria stays neutral:

  • Hopes for better relations with West
  • Need for UAE investment help
  • Old grudge with Hamas (they supported rebels in 11-12)
  • Russian influence in south Syria
  • Fear of Israeli response

The situation gets more complex when it comes to Iran. While Syria lets Tehran use its land for weapon transport to Hezbollah; it doesnt stop Israel from hitting Iranian targets on its territory. Russian military posts in south Syria (set up after some Iranian generals were killed in spring-24) help keep this balance

Even Hassan Nasrallah Hezbollahs leader showed understanding for Syrias position:

We cannot demand more from Syria and we must be realistic

Nasrallahʼs speech in late 23

Syria continues its balancing act: not joining conflict directly but allowing some weapon transfers through its territory. This shows how survival beats ideology in todays Middle-East politics

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