In a recent by-election held on September 16, 2024, Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party experienced a significant setback in the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Emard-Verdun. This defeat marks the second time in three months that the Liberals have lost a by-election in a traditionally strong area, raising concerns about the party's prospects in the upcoming federal election scheduled for fall 2025.
The Bloc Québécois candidate, Louis-Philippe Sauve, emerged victorious with 28% of the vote, narrowly defeating the Liberal candidate Laura Palestini, who received 27.2%. The New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate finished a close third with 26.1% of the votes.
Justin Trudeau, who has been serving as Prime Minister since 2015, addressed the loss, stating:
"Obviously it would have been nicer to be able to win . . . but there's more work to do. The big thing is to make sure that Canadians understand the choice they get to make in the next election. That's the work we're going to continue to do."
[[Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's response to the by-election loss]]
This defeat is particularly noteworthy as LaSalle-Emard-Verdun has been a Liberal stronghold in recent years. The party's performance in this by-election represents a significant drop of nearly 16 percentage points compared to their 2021 federal election results in the same riding.
Political analysts view this loss as a considerable blow to the Liberal Party. Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, emphasized the unexpected nature of this defeat in what was considered a safe seat for the Liberals.
The by-election results have intensified discussions about Justin Trudeau's leadership and the Liberal Party's future. While some party members may advocate for a change in leadership, it remains uncertain whether Trudeau will step down before the next federal election.
Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne expressed support for Trudeau, stating that he is the person who can inspire Canadians and provide a positive vision for the country.
The political landscape in Canada has become increasingly complex. The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre since 2022, currently leads in most polls. Additionally, the NDP, under the leadership of Jagmeet Singh since 2017, recently ended its supply and confidence agreement with the Liberals, potentially paving the way for an early federal election.
In a separate by-election held on the same day in Winnipeg, the NDP managed to retain their seat, albeit with a narrower margin than in previous elections. This result demonstrates the evolving political dynamics across the country.
As Canada approaches its next federal election, the Liberal Party faces the challenge of reconnecting with voters and addressing concerns in key constituencies. The outcome of these recent by-elections may prompt a reevaluation of strategies and policies within the party as they prepare for the upcoming national campaign.